But more than three times that number – 675,000 – could die from the collateral effects of long lockdowns.
The analysis, to be published soon in the scientific journal Perceptions in nanotechnology, was based on projected death rates from the virus, as well as the economic impact of social isolation or closure and that of previous recessions.
Professor Thomas said, “It is not enough to look at the epidemiology, the spread of Covid-19, in isolation. You have to look at the effect on the economy as much, because a nation’s economy and its health are so closely linked that at some point they become inseparable. Poverty kills as surely as the coronavirus.
“The policy of phasing out the lockdown, over five years – which will be necessary if we want to keep the infection rate close to or less than one – will reduce the life balance of the coronavirus but will lead to a much greater loss of life. of the nation.
“The net loss of human life should be around 675,000. This is higher than during the six years of the Second World War. “