Scientists have launched a wave of criticism against Prof. Neil Ferguson’s modeling which prompted Britain to detain after declaring that 500,000 people could die from Covid-19.
Modeling of epidemiologist at Imperial College London, Professor Ferguson, who left the Sage group from government in early May, has been described as unreliable by experts, while tests of the model have put together different results, reports The Telegraph.
David Richards, co-founder of the British data technology company WANdisco, said: “In our business reality, we would fire anyone to develop code like this and any company that would go into producing software at selling would probably go bankrupt. “
Modeling Professor Neil Ferguson’s claim that 500,000 Britons could die from Covid-19 has been criticized by scientists
Computer coding of the model simulated transportation links, population size, health services and social networks to predict how the pandemic would spread. However, experts told the Telegraph that the coding was messy and outdated.
Researchers at the University of Edinburgh have reportedly found bugs when the model was run, obtaining different results when using different machines, or even the same machines in some cases.
A few weeks after the model’s grim prediction, Professor Michael Thursdayfield of the University of Edinburgh criticized Professor Ferguson’s file as “irregular”, referring to early 2000s predictions that up to 136,000 people could die mad cow disease and 200 million avian flu.
Dr. Konstantin Boudnik, vice president of architecture at WANdisco, told the Telegraph: “The facts of the early 2000s are just one more confirmation that their modeling approach was flawed. ”
Professor Ferguson resigned from his role on Sage, the council of scientists advising the government during a coronavirus pandemic, earlier this month after it was revealed that he had broken the lock rules that it helped inspire.
Antonia Staats visited Professor Ferguson in her London apartment while the British had to stay at home
It was revealed that Professor Ferguson had invited his lover Antonia Staats to his apartment in London, while the British public was invited to stay at home.
A spokesperson for the Covid-19 University Response Team said, “The British government has never relied on a single disease model to inform decision-making.
“As has been said many times, the decision to lock in was based on a consensual view of scientific evidence, including several modeling studies by different academic groups.
“Several groups using different models have concluded that the pandemic would overwhelm the NHS and cause unacceptably high mortality without extreme measures of social distancing.
“As part of the Imperial research team, we use several models of different levels of complexity, all of which produce consistent results. We are working with a number of legitimate academic groups and technology companies to further develop, test and document the simulation code referred to.
“However, we reject the partisan criticisms of some commentators who are clearly motivated by ideologies.
“Epidemiology is not a branch of information technology and the conclusions concerning locking are not based on a mathematical model but on the scientific consensus that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible virus with a higher mortality rate from infection 0.5% in the United Kingdom. “