What there is to know
- To date, more than 29,000 lives in three states have been lost. New York State announced its lowest single-day death toll in weeks on Sunday (280)
- All New York schools will remain closed for the rest of the school year, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Friday; New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy scheduled to speak to state schools on Monday
- Cuomo is expected to provide an update on its PAUSE directive this week; it is set to expire on May 15 and said it could allow parts of the state to reopen while others remain closed.
New York State’s COVID-19 total hospitalizations fell below 10,000 for the first time since mid-March Sunday, while new daily hospitalizations fell below 800 for the first time in weeks. Temporary field hospitals are closing one after the other, another progressive indicator as the region plans to reopen.
Governor Andrew Cuomo added another 280 lives to the rising death toll in New York on Sunday; it was the lowest number on a single day in more than a month, but as the governor said, he was “extremely distressing.” The state has lost more than 19,000 people, although Cuomo recognizes that the real toll is likely to be higher.
If the 5,387 probable deaths in New York were included in the official count, it would be close to 25,000. The IHME, widely monitored, which integrates these data in its modeling of the infection, predicted that New York could ultimately lose 24,314 units on May 30 for the benefit of COVID-19. We have already gone beyond that.
New Jersey has reported 7,871 deaths to date, also exceeding what IHME last predicted the state could ultimately lose in the face of the crisis. Connecticut has lost 2,495 to date. Even without the New York likelys, the Triple State is on the verge of 30,000 deaths and will likely break the dark milestone in the next two days.
People were out in force in New York for the first time in months over the weekend; the sunny weather at 70 degrees was a first real test. The city has distributed 100,000 free masks to equip people with self-protection and plans to distribute 7.5 million additional face covers throughout the city to arm people throughout the summer.
Most of those present this weekend wore masks, but police issued more than 50 summons for violations of social distancing. Three people were arrested, including one in a violent confrontation with cops. The officer involved in this latest incident is now on modified duty.
Overall, the curve appears to be trending steadily downward. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said his three key indicators – people admitted to hospitals, people in intensive care and the percentage of people tested positive – were all down on Monday for the first time in at least one week. We have to chain more days like this, he said.
Cuomo warned New Yorkers against any false comfort in the downward trends: “The war is not won.”
This is not necessarily a one-off crisis, the governor said Sunday. There could be a second wave; the virus could mutate. Studies show that there appear to be several strains.
Remember, he hit the west coast first. A recent CDC report says it was the strain that came from China; California has seen far fewer cases and far fewer deaths than the northeast. The CDC report indicates that the origins of the virus in New York were European and elsewhere in the United States; this strain appears to have been more virulent, said Cuomo.
“I guess there will be” next time, “said the governor on Sunday.
De Blasio added on Monday: “We are not going to be caught watching. We will be ready for this. “
Lessons Learned: Rebuilding Better
As local governments plan to reopen, Cuomo says it’s fair to focus on what they should do it differently rather than what they could have done differently. This crisis has provided an overabundance of painful lessons learned; Cuomo says they can be applied to rebuild New York better and stronger than before.
Going forward, the governor will demand that all New York hospitals, public and private, maintain a 90-day supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) and other key medical supplies at “a worst-case utilization rate.” this crisis ”to secure the health care system is never as threatened as it was earlier this year.
De Blasio said for the first time since March that New York City has enough medical supplies to spend a full week without worrying about running out.
“The idea that I can tell you that we have a full week of supply to come is good news but it is certainly not the way we can live in the future,” said de Blasio Monday. “I never want to see New York in this situation again. “
Trying to get lifesaving supplies like blouses and ventilation machines in this crisis has turned into a rat race in the United States. In a bidding war to save the lives of their people, states ended up paying far above the market price for basic needs.
To prevent this from happening in the future, Cuomo and his six governor allies in the Northeast in New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania and Delaware announced a new consortium on Sunday. ‘purchase.
They will buy the essential COVID-19 supplies together instead of competing with each other. To build up reserves, de Blasio plans to continue to locally manufacture items such as surgical gowns and face shields.
White House reopening guidelines leave room for interpretation
For states planning to lift quarantine measures, official guidelines suggest either a downward trajectory for COVID-19 cases within two weeks, or a downward trajectory for positive tests as a percentage of total tests.
As shown below, when you compare the new number of cases from yesterday to the number from two weeks ago, the number is often lower, simply because the number fluctuates. Some have criticized the criteria for their vagueness, which gives any governor the opportunity to argue that the numbers are favorable enough to start reopening.
To alleviate any delay in distribution, states hope to partner with suppliers in the northeast to increase production. According to Cuomo, they will also identify untapped technologies that promise potential for more efficient alternative production methods. These efforts will increase state market power, lower prices, and ultimately save taxpayers money, Cuomo said.
As it stands, the COVID-19 crisis has dealt an economic blow to the nation and its citizens, like none in decades. More than 30 million people have filed for unemployment in the past six weeks, breaking records. The cost for the American psyche is incalculable; the crisis has cemented a new type of fear in the public.
Uncertainty looms. We don’t even know how many people are infected. The tri-state region alone has reported more than 472,000 cases to date: 316,415 in New York, 126,744 in New Jersey and 29,287 in Connecticut. But early antibody results indicate that the number of cases could actually be up to 10 times higher.
Cuomo says the crisis will not be “really” over until there is a vaccine. More than 70 are under development, but approval could be at least 12 to 18 months, if not longer. Oxford scientists who are developing a potential vaccine for the coronavirus are hoping to see a “signal” that their vaccine candidate is working by June.
Meanwhile, a recent clinical trial of Remdesivir, Gilead Sciences’ best experimental drug, has shown promising results. The FDA last week granted emergency use authorization to the most seriously ill patients.