Mathematical modeling suggests possible containment of Covid-19

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Mathematical modeling studies suggest that containment of Covid-19 may be possible, but the success of containment operations “cannot be guaranteed” as there is effective human-to-human transmission, the Union’s Department of Health said on Saturday .

He also stated that there is no drug or vaccine approved for the treatment of Covid-19 at this time and that chemoprophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine is recommended for healthcare workers and high risk.

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“Since there is effective human-to-human transmission, the success of containment operations cannot be guaranteed. Mathematical modeling studies suggest that containment may be possible, “said the Department of Health.

The government has developed a containment plan as clusters with a high risk of spreading Covid-19 have emerged.

The cluster containment strategy aims to contain the spread of the disease in a geographic area defined by the early detection of cases, breaking the chain of transmission and thus preventing its spread to new areas.

For institutional mechanisms and intersectoral coordination at the national level, the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) and the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) will be activated. The NCMC will coordinate with the health and non-health sectors on matters reported by the Ministry of Health.

“The state concerned will activate the State Crisis Management Committee or the State Disaster Management Authority, as the case may be, to manage the clusters of Covid-19,” said a document from the Ministry of Health.

There will be regular coordination meetings between the Center and affected states by videoconference, he said.

The document stated that India would follow a strategic approach to possible scenarios – cases of reported travel to India, local transmission of Covid-19, large outbreaks that could be contained, widespread community transmission of the disease and India becoming endemic for Covid-19.

According to the document, “The containment of large epidemics through a geographic quarantine strategy requires an almost absolute cessation of movement of people to and from a relatively large defined area where there is a single large epidemic or several foci of transmission local Covid-19 “. “Simply put, this is a barrier erected around the focus of infection. geographic quarantine will be applicable to those areas reporting large outbreaks and / or multiple clusters of Covid-19 spread over several blocks in one or more contiguous districts, “he said.

The cluster containment strategy would include geographic quarantine, social distancing measures, enhanced active surveillance, testing of all suspected cases, case isolation, contact quarantine and risk communication to educate the public about preventive public health measures, the document says.

Regarding evidence of the implementation of geographic quarantine, the document states that “the current geographic distribution of Covid-19 mimics the distribution of pandemic H1N1 flu”. “This suggests that if the spread of Covid-19 in our population could be high, it is unlikely to uniformly affect all regions of the country,” the ministry said.

Large-scale measures to contain Covid-19 over large areas have been tried in China. Mathematical modeling studies have suggested that containment may be possible, particularly when other public health interventions are combined with an effective social distancing strategy, the document said. The department has listed some of the factors affecting the containment of large hatch clusters.

A number of variables determine the success of containment operations through geographic quarantine, including the number and size of the cluster and also the efficiency with which the virus is transmitted in the Indian population, taking into account environmental factors, especially temperature and humidity, he said.

Factors also include the public health response in terms of active case detection, detection of large numbers of cases, immediate isolation of suspected and confirmed cases and contact quarantine as well as the geographic characteristics of The area.

According to the document, authorities will conduct a thorough contact search and actively search for cases in the containment area, test all suspected and high-risk contacts, isolate all suspected or confirmed cases, implement distancing measures social and intensive risk communication as part of the cluster containment strategy.

For major epidemics likely to be contained, the document said the strategy will remain the same but will vary in scope depending on the spread and the response to contain it.

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