Experts at the University of Cambridge believe that the “R” rate – the number of people to whom an infected person transmits the disease – has dropped to 0.4.
This means that for every 10 people with the killer virus, there will be four new infections.
At the start of the pandemic, it was estimated at more than three.
If correct, the virus could be cleared by next month.
But in North East and Yorkshire, experts estimate that the “R” rate is double London’s figure at 0.8 – which means that there will be eight new infections in 10 cases.
However, photos of crowded trains and buses this week sounded the alarm amid concerns of a new spike in the cases.
The modeling is the work of a joint group of Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge.
This comes as the government begins to relax the lockout restrictions, with Premier Boris Johnson urging people to return to work.
Images of crowded tubes and buses raised concerns that commuters would endanger themselves on the way to work.
Transport for London increased 10% early Thursday compared to the same period last week, said Transport for London (TfL).
A disturbing snapshot taken by nurse Abbie Biddick showed commuters forced to stand on a crowded Central Line car this morning with many unmasked.
She wrote on Twitter: “All the journalists who say the tube is not busy are clearly not on the center line in the morning. Each seat is full and people are not more than 10 cm apart. “
Twitter user James Hart shared a photo of a busy Jubilee train taken from North Greenwich to Wembley Park. He asked, “#WheresYourMasks? “
Labor has targeted government monitoring and traceability plans – seen as essential to allow UK to lift toughest lock-out measures – warning ministers that its crack team of contact tracers should be close to three times the size of the current operation installed.
The Local Government Association (LGA) said schools should be allowed to make their own reopening decisions, especially in areas where the proportion of black, Asian and ethnic minority residents is higher.
Councilor Judith Blake, Chair of the LGA’s Children and Youth Council, said the parents were “impatient” to send their children back to school and said more needed to be done to reassure families.