Coronavirus US: 5 million people will be infected by July, according to a model

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Coronavirus infections could reach 5.4 million in the United States in the next two months, and more than 290,000 Americans could die if social distance is not respected, according to a COVID-19 forecasting model.

The disturbing predictions from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School model explain the complete reopening of all states without any measure of social distancing.

In comparison, the model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if states reopen but individuals continue their social distancing efforts.

If states only partially reopen by removing home stay orders but social distancing measures are still followed, the model predicts 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths.

In the best case scenario, which would imply that each state maintains lockdown restrictions as of May 17 with social distancing measures still in place, there could still be 2.8 million infections and 157,000 deaths.

The majority of American states had already lifted the COVID-19 lockout restrictions by mid-May.

Meanwhile, a separate model from the UMass Center for Excellence in Prediction of Influenza predicts that deaths will exceed 113,000 by mid-June.

COMPLETE REOPENING WITHOUT SOCIAL DISTANCE: The Wharton School model at the University of Pennsylvania predicts 5.4 million infections and 290,000 deaths by July 24 if all states reopen completely without any social distancing measures. It also forecasts 4.6 million job losses and a drop in GDP of 0/7% in this scenario

COMPLETE REOPENING WITHOUT SOCIAL DISTANCE: The Wharton School model at the University of Pennsylvania predicts 5.4 million infections and 290,000 deaths by July 24 if all states reopen completely without any social distancing measures. It also forecasts 4.6 million job losses and a drop in GDP of 0/7% in this scenario

The average modeling projection, compiled from nine models of separate institutions, predicted that about 22,000 more Americans will succumb to the virus in the next 25 days.

“The new cumulative death forecasts in the United States by June 13 are about 113,000, with a 10% chance of seeing less than about 107,000 and a 10% chance of seeing more than 121,000, “said center director Nicholas Reich.

The overall specific forecast average is 113,364 deaths on this date.

Currently, there are over 1.5 million cases and over 92,000 deaths in the United States.

Latest projections come as most U.S. states take steps – some minor, others more substantial – to reopen their economies and closed communities while facing the challenge of instilling confidence in Americans that it is safe to start to return to normal.

Last month, the White House released guidelines on progressive reopenings, which included criteria each state had to meet before returning to normal, including a downward trajectory of new cases over a 14-day period.

Several states have been accused of reopening despite failure to meet specific criteria.

FULL OPENING WITH SOCIAL DISTANCE: The model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if states reopen but individuals continue their social distancing efforts. There would be 4.1 million job losses and a 3.3% drop in GDP in this scenario

FULL OPENING WITH SOCIAL DISTANCE: The model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if states reopen but individuals continue their social distancing efforts. There would be 4.1 million job losses and a 3.3% drop in GDP in this scenario

PARTIAL REOPENING WITH SOCIAL DISTANCE: If states only partially reopen by removing home care orders but social distancing measures are still followed, the model predicts 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths. In this scenario, there could be 1.2 million job losses and a 4.2% drop in GDP

PARTIAL REOPENING WITH SOCIAL DISTANCE: If states only partially reopen by removing home care orders but social distancing measures are still followed, the model predicts 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths. In this scenario, there could be 1.2 million job losses and a 4.2% drop in GDP

A separate model from the Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting UMass projects deaths will exceed 113,000 by mid-June. The average modeling projection, compiled from nine models of separate institutions, predicted that about 22,000 more Americans will succumb to the virus in the next 25 days.

A separate model from the UMass Center for Excellence in Prediction of Influenza predicts that deaths will exceed 113,000 by mid-June. The average modeling projection, compiled from nine models of separate institutions, predicted that about 22,000 more Americans will succumb to the virus in the next 25 days.

Hopes of limiting the pandemic have proven elusive.

Two weeks ago, President Donald Trump said that the United States would lose “between 75, 80 and 100,000 people”.

On April 10, he predicted that coronavirus deaths across the country would be “well below 100,000” and perhaps even as low as half.

Deaths in the United States are less than a million compared to eight European countries, despite the highest total death toll in the world, but America is lagging behind in testing with only 3% of the population having tested, according to the data.

For every million people, 280 have died from the virus in the United States, accounting for 0.028% of the population.

This is less than half the rate in Belgium, where 797 deaths per 1 million (0.08% of the population) died, and in Spain, where 594 deaths per 1 million (0.06%) died. Italy and the United Kingdom are third and fourth with death rates. In Italy, 0.05% of the population died and in the United Kingdom, the number is 0.053%.

In addition to predictions of death and infection, Wharton’s model also predicts the economic effects of the reopening of states.

The model predicts a total of 294,000 job losses by the end of July and a 6.4% drop in GDP compared to 2019 if the locking measures are in place on May 17 and social distancing is maintained.

In comparison, there could be 1.2 million job losses and a 4.2% drop in GDP if the States only partially reopened, and 4.1 million job losses and a drop of 3.3 % of GDP if they reopen completely.

The University of Washington Institute of Metrology and Health Assessment, part of the White House model, downgraded its Tuesday death forecast to 143,357 in August .

The University of Washington Institute of Metrology and Health Assessment, part of the White House model, downgraded its Tuesday death forecast to 143,357 in August .

Institute director Chris Murray told CNN that the lower forecast was due in part to the growing number of Americans who wear masks when they go out. About 40% of Americans said they always wore a mask when they left the house

Institute director Chris Murray told CNN that the lower forecast was due in part to the growing number of Americans who wear masks when they go out. About 40% of Americans said they always wear a mask when they leave the house

The University of Washington Institute of Metrology and Health Assessment, part of the White House model, downgraded its projection to the number of deaths on Tuesday.

The model lowered its expected death toll by 3,700 to a total of 143,357 in August.

Institute director Chris Murray told CNN that the lower forecast was due in part to the growing number of Americans who wear masks when they go out.

“We were quite surprised. We expected to increase probably due to the large increase in mobility, ”said Murray.

“If you dig deeper and look at the fraction of people in different states who wear masks, we think that is the main difference, both in their behavior and in the wearing of the mask.

“Forty percent of the United States wears the mask all the time; around 80% sometimes wear a mask. And that probably helps to separate the increase in mobility.

According to IHME data, in most areas of northeast, California, Florida, Texas, Michigan, Illinois, Colorado and Arkansas, more than 80% of residents reported that they sometimes or always wear a mask when leaving the house.

In just four states, less than 60 percent of residents say they sometimes wear them; South Carolina, Indiana, Wisconsin and Oklahoma.

In all other states, between 60 and 80 percent of residents said they sometimes wore them.

Only in some northeastern states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Maine do more than 60% of residents say they still wear them.

Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. per capita are less than eight European countries despite the highest number in the world, but only 3% of the population has been tested

Deaths in the United States are less than a million compared to eight European countries, despite the highest total death toll in the world, but America is lagging behind in testing with only 3% of the population having received tests.

By weighing the death toll against the huge US population of around 328 million, and then comparing the per capita rate to other European countries, the United States slips to eighth place on the list of most affected countries .

For every million people, 280 have died from the virus in the United States, accounting for 0.028% of the population.

This is less than half the rate in Belgium, where 797 deaths per 1 million (0.08% of the population) died, and in Spain, where 594 deaths per 1 million (0.06%) died.

Italy and the United Kingdom are third and fourth with death rates. In Italy, 0.05% of the population died and in the United Kingdom, the number is 0.053%.

France (0.04%), Sweden (0.04%), the Netherlands (0.33%) and Ireland (0.32%) come next, ahead of the United States.

But the population scale, although positive when examining the relatively small number of deaths in the United States, also highlights the country’s delay in testing.

The United States has performed a higher number of tests than anywhere else. By Wednesday morning, 12.67 million had been achieved and 1.5 million were positive.

This impressive number decreases by folding it into the size of the country’s population. Only about 3% of the American population has been tested.

Data compiled by Statistica on Wednesday shows how the United States has performed a higher number of tests than any other country in the world. The UK has the second highest number of tests and Italy has the third highest

Data compiled by Statistica on Wednesday shows how the United States has performed a higher number of tests than any other country in the world. The UK has the second highest number of tests and Italy has the third highest

Per capita test rates, however, show that the United States is the eighth best in the world because its population is so much larger than other countries. Spain made the most per capita, followed by Portugal. The United States still beats Germany, Canada and France

Per capita test rates, however, show that the United States is the eighth best in the world because its population is so much larger than other countries. Spain made the most per capita, followed by Portugal. The United States still beats Germany, Canada and France

While the United States has the highest number of deaths, its death rate per capita is ninth in the list of most affected countries. Belgium tops the list

While the United States has the highest number of deaths, its death rate per capita is ninth in the list of most affected countries. Belgium tops the list

Spain (6.5%), Portugal, (6.49%), Belgium (6.22%), Qatar (5.78%), Russia (5.14%), Italy (5.13%), Kingdom -United Kingdom (4.09%), Switzerland (4.05%), and Belarus (3.97%) are all ahead.

This goes against remarks by President Trump who said earlier this month that the United States is testing “almost double the rate of any other country.”

The United States still outperforms many other countries.

The Netherlands only tested 1.77% of its population and Sweden, according to the data, only tested 2% of its population.

Sweden has criticized its decision to remain open. Its number of cases was lower than that of many other European countries – perhaps partly due to its relatively low number of tests – and its number of deaths was above average.

The infection rate among those tested in America is around 12.4%. The mortality rate, calculated as the percentage of people who test positive who die, is more than 6%.

The true death rate is much lower because there have been countless cases of undetected and undiagnosed viruses for months.

The numbers are all self-reported and in some countries have been questioned.

Russia, for example, has reported numbers of suspected cases and deaths for weeks despite sharing a border with China, where the virus originates. Today, the country reports 309,000 cases and 2,972 deaths in its population of 147 million.

For weeks, he said he had fewer cases than Luxembourg, a country with a population of just 628,000.

It is unclear where China, where the virus originates, is on the list of tests in the most affected countries in the world.

Mexico, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Ecuadro and Iran are among the worst, but the Netherlands and Sweden were also below expectations.

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