Coronavirus UK: Scientists predict exact date virus will go away


People in a fitness class on their balconies
Scientists believe UK could be rid of Covid-19 by the end of August (Photo: Reuters)

Scientists have predicted the exact date by which they expect the UK and other countries around the world to be free from coronavirus.

The University of Technology and Design in Singapore has created a mathematical model that predicts future infections with Covid-19 using data from confirmed cases and current deaths.

The model – based on a “predictive surveillance” technique – records cases and deaths worldwide and visualizes the data in a bar graph. A bell-shaped curve on the top displays the projected path of the disease, including peak, acceleration and deceleration.

The UK forecast for April 30 is coronavirus free by August 27, Singapore earlier on June 28 and the United States later on September 20.

The model predicts a 100% end to the global pandemic around December 4.

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The scientists who made the predictions, however, stressed that the predictions are subject to change and that the dates are not final.

The team said the model is “imprecise of the complex, changing and heterogeneous realities of different countries” and that “forecasts are inherently uncertain”.

This is due to a number of factors, including the tightening of restrictions in some places and the loosening of measures in others, people who do not comply with the measures or protests against the foreclosure.

Scientists have warned, however, that factors such as people not adhering to the lock could affect the scheduled date (Image: EPA)

The report adds: “Over-optimism based on certain planned end dates is dangerous because it can relax our disciplines and controls and cause the virus and infection to reverse, and should be avoided. “

This comes as experts predicted that the UK could register zero coronavirus deaths from June, and no new cases were recorded in London on Monday.

Oxford University Evidence Professor Carl Heneghan predicts sporadic increase and decrease in deaths over the next four to six weeks, but does not expect to find any listed coronaviruses in ONS death data by the end of June.

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During a briefing this week, he said, “I think by the end of June we will be looking at the data and it will be difficult to find people with this disease if current trends continue. continue in the deaths.

“But we will continue to have these sporadic ups and downs for about four to six weeks. “

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