Coronavirus: scientists estimate that it kills 0.75% of all patients

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COVID-19 could kill one in 133 people it infects, suggesting that nearly six million people in the UK already have it, scientists say.

The researchers gathered information from 13 global studies that attempted to calculate the true coronavirus mortality rate and based on an overall estimate of 0.75%.

This would make it about seven and a half times more deadly than the flu (0.1%), which kills thousands of people every year in Britain.

The number of chimes with data from New York, where random antibody tests last month suggested that a quarter of the city of eight million people had been infected with the disease, which means that the 16,000 deaths were equivalent at a mortality rate of 0.79.

Official statistics currently give inflated death rates – including around 14% in Britain – because only the most seriously ill are tested and scientists warn that the truth is “hard to know” due to the lack of widespread testing.

If the estimate of 0.75% – calculated by Australian researchers – is true, it could mean that 5,796,400 in the UK have been infected with the coronavirus.

This is based on the deaths of 43,473 people, an estimate from the National Statistics Bureau’s backdated data, which was 42% higher than the government’s official number of deaths (today 30,615) when it was last counted.

Officially, 206,715 people in Britain have been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the real figure is known to be considerably higher because authorities have rationed the tests.

It is unlikely that the true death rate from the virus will become clear before the pandemic ends and that countries will be able to determine how many people actually caught and survived it.

Smaller studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden and the United States have suggested that the mortality rate is between 0.19 and 0.79%.

Australian researchers who conducted the new research said it was “likely” to be between 0.49 and 1.01 percent and higher in the elderly or the chronically ill, and lower for the youngest.

Australian researchers have reviewed and compared 13 separate studies of global death rates. They ranged from 0.2% to 1.6% and the scientists released a weighted average estimate of 0.75%.

Australian researchers have reviewed and compared 13 separate studies of global death rates. They ranged from 0.2% to 1.6% and the scientists released a weighted average estimate of 0.75%.

The Australian researchers' study suggests that more than five million people in the UK have already had the coronavirus. If the virus had the same death rate as the flu, which scientists suggested at the start of the epidemic, it would mean that two-thirds of the British population was suffering from it.

The Australian researchers’ study suggests that more than five million people in the UK have already had coronavirus. If the virus had the same death rate as the flu, which scientists suggested at the start of the epidemic, it would mean that two-thirds of the UK population was suffering from it.

Officially, 206,715 people in Britain have been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the real figure is known to be considerably higher because authorities have rationed the tests

Officially, 206,715 people in Britain have been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the real figure is known to be considerably higher because authorities have rationed the tests

Applying the different estimated mortality rates of the virus, the actual number of people infected with coronavirus in Britain could be one of the following:

  • 0.1% mortality rate (flu) – 43,473,000 cases in the UK
  • 0.19% mortality rate (Helsinki, Finland) – 22,880,526 cases in the United Kingdom
  • Mortality rate of 0.37% (Gangelt, Germany) – 11,146,923 cases in the United Kingdom
  • 0.4% mortality rate (Stockholm, Sweden) – 10,868,250 cases in the United Kingdom
  • 0.49% mortality rate (lower estimate from Australian study) – 8,872,040 cases in the UK
  • 0.75% mortality rate (average study estimate) – 5,796,400 cases in the UK
  • 0.79% mortality rate (New York) – 5,502,911 cases in the United Kingdom
  • 1.01% mortality rate (higher study estimate) – 4,304,257 cases in the UK

The study was conducted by epidemiologist Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz of the University of Wollongong and Dr. Lea Merone of James Cook University.

The two of them searched online for studies in English from around the world that suggested death rates from infection with the virus.

The case fatality rate is an attempt to determine the actual number of people that an illness kills, compared to a case fatality rate that calculates the death rate in diagnosed patients.

Because so many people – who are now considered to be millions in the UK alone – have been infected with COVID-19 but have never been diagnosed, the true lethality of the drug remains a mystery.

STATISTICS SUGGEST UP TO 400,000 PEOPLE IN THE UK HAVE COVID-19 NOW

Up to 400,000 people in Britain could currently be infected with the coronavirus, according to initial results from the government’s mass sampling program.

And a senior scientist said he believes 20,000 people still get the deadly infection every day in the countries of origin.

Ministers launched surveillance studies to monitor COVID-19 levels in Britain, the true extent of the epidemic remains a mystery.

It is known that millions of cases have not been identified because controversial health officials decided to abandon public testing at the start of the epidemic.

Preliminary data from one of the main programs, co-chaired by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), suggests that the deadly virus has been detected in 0.2 to 0.6 of the British (130,000 to 396,000 people) ).

It is unclear whether these results come from swab tests, which indicate whether a person is currently infected – or from antibody tests, which look for signs of past infection.

The sampling study involved both forms of testing to give number 10 a better idea of ​​the size of the crisis.

But the results are unlikely to be based on the proportion of the population that has developed antibodies, as this would suggest that only 400,000 Britons have already been infected – which gives COVID-19 a mortality rate of around 10 %, experts confirming the real death of the United Kingdom. the toll is over 40,000.

Leading virologists around the world estimate that the actual death rate is less than 1%.

Downing Street science advisers previously said that up to 10% of London’s residents (900,000) have already been infected.

The first results of the ONS population tests are expected on Thursday, May 14.

But authorities and researchers are currently testing antibodies to find out what proportion of the population has had the virus and recovered without medical help.

A lower death rate will indicate that many more people have been infected and not counted, while a higher number means the virus is more deadly.

The researchers said, “It’s hard to draw a single conclusion about the number …

“The aggregation of the results gives a point estimate of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%), but there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether this is a reasonable figure or simply a a better estimate. “

Studies considered by Mr. Meyerowitz-Katz and Dr. Merone have examined COVID-19 patients in the United States, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, China, Japan, France and on the boat Diamond Princess cruise ship, which spent three weeks moored off the coast of Japan.

The document reviewed all of their estimates of the mortality rate from infection, which was between 0.2 and 1.6, and reduced the estimate to 0.49 to 1.01, with an average estimate of 0 , 75.

He said, “Because of [variety] in the meta-analysis, it is unclear whether this represents the “true” point estimate.

“It is likely that due to age and possibly underlying co-morbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease.

“There is an urgent need to continue research on age-stratified IFRs to inform policy making on this front. “

They added, “This research has a range of very important implications.

“Some countries have announced their plans to continue collective immunity against COVID-19 in the absence of vaccination.

“The aggregated IFR suggests that at a minimum, 0.45-0.53% of a population is expected to die before the collective disease immunity threshold (based on an R0 of 2, 5-3 (17)) is reached.

“For example, in the United States, it would imply more than a million deaths at the bottom of the scale.”

They published the document online on medRxiV without review by other scientists.

This is in addition to the first surveys in major western cities which, last month, began to provide an overview of the actual number of people who had been infected and, in turn, the actual death rates from the infection.

The reproduction rate of the coronavirus, which dictates the number of people each infected patient transmits, has dropped significantly since the UK lockout started, but government scientists warned yesterday that it has started to increase again in because of the rapid spread in nursing homes and hospitals

The reproduction rate of the coronavirus, which dictates the number of people each infected patient transmits, has dropped significantly since the UK lockout started, but government scientists warned yesterday that it has started to increase again in because of the rapid spread in nursing homes and hospitals

INFECTION RATE IS RISING IN BRITTANY DUE TO CHANGES IN HOME CARE

Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, warned that the current crisis in retirement homes has raised the UK’s R0, the rate at which each person will continue to infect another, to 0.9 .

Johnson has already placed the R-value at the heart of the battle for coronaviruses in Britain, suggesting that the status of the lockdown – which should be eased slightly on Sunday – now depends on how the rate changes in the coming weeks.

Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said at yesterday’s briefing in Downing Street that it would be between 0.5 and 0.9 nationally.

Professor Edmunds put it between 0.75 and 1 and said it had increased in the past two weeks due to worsening epidemics in nursing homes across the country.

If the number exceeds 1, the epidemic will start to spread again and could become uncontrollable again.

The chief statistician of the Office of National Statistics said at the briefing that the R and the number of infectious people should go down together.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond said he “would not object” to the estimate that the R had increased in recent weeks.

He said: “It is important to recognize that the R number itself is only relevant if you also look at the prevalence context.

“I think we need to look at the two together to understand where we are … we certainly need to control the epidemic in nursing homes and hospitals. “

New York City Governor Andrew Cuomo said in April that surveys have shown that a quarter (24.7%) of the city’s population has recovered from COVID-19.

Authorities discovered this as a result of their antibody test program, which can detect people whose immune systems have fought the virus.

At least 7,500 randomly selected people have been tested in five boroughs of the city, which has the worst epidemic in the world.

Test results suggest that some 2.1 million people have been infected. 16,673 deaths had been recorded in New York when Governor Cuomo made the announcement yesterday, putting the death rate at 0.79%.

Applying the same death rate to the UK’s current estimated 43,473 deaths would suggest that 5.5 million Britons have been infected.

The figure of 43,473 is an up-to-date estimate based on figures from the Office for National Statistics, suggesting that the actual number of victims is 42% higher than the official figure from the Ministry of Health.

The ONS includes all people whose COVID-19 is mentioned as a contributing factor on their death certificate, whether or not they have been diagnosed.

However, the government will only include people who test positive. For two months, he rationed the tests only for patients and hospital staff, which meant that thousands of people were missed.

Studies similar to the one underway in New York, conducted in Helsinki, Finland; Stockholm, Sweden; and Gangelt, Germany, provide alternative estimates.

These cities found that the death rate was lower, at 0.19% (Helsinki), 0.37% (Gangelt) or 0.4% (Stockholm).

And at the start of the epidemic, government scientists suggested that the death rate could be similar to the flu, at 0.1%, which would mean that more than half of the British population has already been infected.

About 400,000 people in Britain could be currently infected with a coronavirus and 20,000 are killed every day

Up to 400,000 people in Britain could currently be infected with the coronavirus, according to the first results of the government’s mass sampling plan – amid fears, 20,000 people are still affected by the deadly infection every day through the countries of origin.

Ministers launched surveillance studies to monitor COVID-19 levels in Britain, the true size of the epidemic remains a mystery, millions of cases having been missed because heads of health controversially decided to abandon generalized tests at the start of the epidemic.

Preliminary data from one of the main programs, co-chaired by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), suggests that the deadly virus has been detected in 0.2 to 0.6 of the British (130,000 to 396,000 people) ).

It is unclear whether these results come from swab tests, which indicate whether a person is currently infected – or from antibody tests, which look for signs of past infection. The sampling study involved both forms of testing to give number 10 a better idea of ​​the size of the crisis.

But the results are unlikely to be based on the proportion of the population that has developed antibodies, as this would suggest that only 400,000 Britons have already been infected – which gives COVID-19 a mortality rate of around 10 %, experts confirming the real death of the United Kingdom. the toll is over 40,000.

Number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 has decreased by 16% over the past week to 12,692 - NHS now plans to slowly return to normal

Number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 has decreased by 16% over the past week to 12,692 – NHS now plans to slowly return to normal

Leading virologists around the world estimate the death rate to be less than 1%, while other data from other antibody schemes suggest that the virus kills around 0.36% of patients, which would mean that ‘about 12 million Britons had the disease in total. It also suggests that about 2,000 of the 400,000 people currently infected will die – but the virus is still spreading in Britain.

Scientific advisers on Downing Street previously said that up to 10% of London (900,000 people) had already been infected.

This comes after a prominent scientist said last night that 20,000 Britons were still infected every day, despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s draconian lockdown to end the crisis, which has now been imposed for six and a half weeks.

Professor John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine also warned that the current crisis tearing apart nursing homes has increased British R0, the rate at which each person will continue to infect another, to 0, 9.

Johnson has already placed the R-value at the heart of the battle for coronaviruses in Britain, suggesting that the status of the lockdown – which should be eased slightly on Sunday – now depends on how the rate changes in the coming weeks.

HOW THE TEST WILL TRACK THE R VALUE OF THE VIRUS AND THE COVID OF THE MONITOR-19

As it steps up monitoring for COVID-19, the government is now moving on to four major population testing programs:

REGULAR TESTS ON 25,000

At least 25,000 people will be enrolled in a program where they will take swab tests every month to see if they are infected at that time.

The mass sampling study will continue over the next year and will be expanded to 300,000 people if it proves useful.

The monitoring program is co-directed by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The first official results are expected soon.

REGULAR ANTIBODY TEST

New antibody tests will be rolled out in 1,000 households across the country to determine what proportion of the population has already been infected.

Qualified nurses will take blood samples from the volunteers and send them to a laboratory where they will be analyzed to see if they have developed immunity.

The program is also managed by the ONS and the University of Oxford, which will analyze anonymized blood tests in one of their laboratories.

100,000 RANDOM TESTS

Imperial College London will oversee a two-part REACT program (real-time assessment of community transmission).

The first part of this will be 100,000 tests of random people in 315 different regions of the UK, to see how many of them are currently infected.

RANDOM ANTIBODY HOME TRIALS

The second part will be a rollout of home antibody tests, which can tell if people have had the disease before and have recovered. These will be given to 300 people for a first try then extended to 10,000 people and then to 100,000 if successful.

Antibody tests will create a picture of the number of people who have already had the virus and can be immunized against it, which means they will not get it any more, at least in the short term.

It would be “impossible” to try to start contact tracing when the disease is spreading so quickly and there is still a “big problem” in nursing homes, experts say.

Professor Edmunds told MEPs that the UK is still seeing “disappointing” deaths from COVID-19 and that the data is still not good enough to break the lock.

There are also questions about the rate of reproduction of the virus – known as the R value – and how it varies across the country.

Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said at today’s briefing in Downing Street that he would be between 0.5 and 0.9 nationally.

Professor Edmunds put it between 0.75 and 1 and said it had increased in the past two weeks due to worsening epidemics in nursing homes across the country.

If the number exceeds 1, the epidemic will start to spread again and could become uncontrollable again.

Government statistics have revealed that an additional 5,614 people were diagnosed with COVID-19 yesterday – 35,000 people tested positive last week.

And there are now 12,692 people hospitalized with the coronavirus, which is a drop of 16% from last week, but shows that the disease is still widespread in England and Wales.

If Professor Edmunds’ prediction of 20,000 a day is correct, it could raise concerns about the government’s plans to start easing the foreclosure measures next week.

Speaking to MEPs at a meeting of the Science and Technology Committee today, Professor Edmunds said: “The incidence must go down directly so that the search for contacts is really feasible, in order to be able to trace all these contacts for these individual cases.

“If we lower the incidence, I think contact tracing will play a role. I don’t think it’s enough to … I don’t want to rely on that alone.

“So I think we will need other measures of social distance. “

If the number of people infected each day remained at 20,000, the country could expect to see 100 deaths per day, assuming a death rate of 0.5%, which has been suggested by statistics from other country.

Leading German institute of disease says closely monitored R rate has dropped from 0.71 to 0.65, which means the epidemic is slowing as it lifts lock restrictions and reopens schools

Leading German institute of disease says closely monitored R rate has dropped from 0.71 to 0.65, which means the epidemic is slowing down as it lifts lock restrictions and reopens schools

Tracing contracts could be impossible at this level of transmission because the government plans to employ around 18,000 contact tracers to locate people close to infected patients.

Officials will not be able to execute their “test, follow-up, tracing” plan until the number of new patients is kept under control.

In addition to the decline in the number of people infected, the rate of transmission must also remain low thanks to social distancing and blocking measures, according to experts.

This is called the R value of the virus and indicates the average number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week placed the R – and the task of keeping it below 1 and preventing a further outbreak of infections – at the heart of the battle against the virus in Britain.

WHAT IS R0?

Each infectious disease is given a reproduction number, known as R0 – pronounced “R naught”.

This is a value that represents the average number of people that a sick person will infect.

WHAT IS R0 FOR COVID-19?

The R0 value of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was estimated by the COVID-19 response team at Imperial College at 2.4 in the United Kingdom before the lockout started.

But some experts analyzing epidemics around the world have estimated that it could be closer to the 6.6 mark.

Estimates of R0 vary as the actual size of the pandemic remains a mystery and the speed of spread of the virus depends on the environment.

It will spread faster in a densely populated city where people travel on the subway than in a rural community where people drive everywhere.

HOW DOES IT COMPARE WITH OTHER VIRUSES?

It is thought to be at least three times more contagious than the coronavirus that causes MERS (0.3 – 0.8).

Measles is one of the most contagious infectious diseases and has an R0 value of 12 to 18 if it is not controlled. Widespread vaccination keeps it suppressed in most developed countries.

It is estimated that the R0 of chickenpox is between 10 and 12, while the seasonal flu has a value of around 1.5.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO HAVE A LOW R0?

The higher the R0 value, the more difficult it is for health officials to control the spread of the disease.

A number less than one means that the epidemic will run out of steam and be forced to end.

In fact, the infectious disease will quickly miss new victims to strike.

HOW DOES LOCKING REDUCE R0?

The UK’s draconian lockdown, imposed on March 23, has slowed the coronavirus crisis in Britain, according to studies.

Last month, scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine analyzed the virus in the United Kingdom.

They estimate that each infected patient now only transmits COVID-19 to 0.62 others, compared to 2.6.

The team said the virus had trouble spreading because people had less contact with others.

They used a survey of 1,300 people who were asked to list the human contacts they had in the past 24 hours.

This was compared to a similar survey done in 2005 to give an idea of ​​how it had changed due to the foreclosure.

It was thought to be just below 4 at the start of the creeping epidemic in the UK, but Professor Edmunds now predicts that it is between 0.75 and 1, which means that if it can be sustained below 1, the epidemic will run out.

The chief statistician of the Office for National Statistics said in today’s briefing at Downing Street that R and the number of infectious people must go down together.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond said he “would not object” to the estimate that the R had increased in recent weeks.

He said: “It is important to recognize that the R number itself is only relevant if you also look at the prevalence context.

“I think we need to look at the two together to understand where we are … we certainly need to control the epidemic in nursing homes and hospitals. “

He said if the R was 1, the number of cases would stabilize because not more than one person would get the virus at the same time, but the number would not decrease either.

Dominic Raab added that “overall, the R is falling” and said that controlling infection rates in hospitals and nursing homes is now the government’s “priority”.

Although the rate of R is high in hospitals and nursing homes, which are high risk areas, it is considered to be very low in the community because people no longer have regular contact with others.

Le professeur Edmunds a déclaré au comité scientifique qu’il y a quelques semaines, il aurait dit que le R dans la communauté se situait entre 0,6 et 0,8.

Mais en raison des taux d’infection plus élevés dans les établissements médicaux, a-t-il déclaré, l’estimation globale se situe désormais à près de 1.

« C’est un gros problème que nous avons dans les hôpitaux et les maisons de soins », a-t-il déclaré.

« Je pense que ce qui s’est passé, c’est que l’épidémie de la communauté est en baisse et que l’épidémie est maintenant concentrée dans ces milieux. “

Et le professeur Edmunds a ajouté: «  Nos données ne sont vraiment pas assez bonnes pour nous donner une certitude sur ce qu’est vraiment le nombre de reproduction dans les hôpitaux et il est probablement variable d’un hôpital à l’autre, et les maisons de soins sont encore pires. “

Le professeur Diamond a déclaré qu’il était important d’examiner la surmortalité au cours de l’épidémie de coronavirus.

Il a ajouté: «Lorsque nous examinons normalement les décès excessifs, nous constatons les décès excessifs les plus élevés en plein cœur de l’hiver, au cœur de ce qu’on appelle souvent la saison de la grippe.

« Les voir au milieu d’un mois d’avril ensoleillé donne à réfléchir. “

Les commentaires du professeur Edmunds interviennent après qu’une étude de l’Université d’East Anglia a suggéré que toutes les mesures de distanciation sociale n’étaient pas égales lorsqu’il s’agissait de réduire les infections à coronavirus.

Le document, qui a étudié les données et les restrictions dans 30 pays du monde, a suggéré qu’un verrouillage complet n’était peut-être pas nécessaire.

L’un des scientifiques impliqués dans la recherche, le Dr Julii Brainard, a déclaré avoir trouvé des distinctions claires entre les mesures les plus efficaces.

« Nous avons constaté que trois des mesures de contrôle étaient particulièrement efficaces et les deux autres non », a-t-elle déclaré à BBC Radio 4 ce matin.

“It hurts me to say this because I have children I would like to take back into education, but closing schools was the most effective measure, followed by mass rallies.

” [This was] followed by what has been defined … like initial business closings. So that was the time when, in the UK for example, they closed gymnasiums and clubs.

“The measure of home support has surprisingly little additional effect, and additional business closings. “

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