A publication developer The new forecast by price analyst PlanB crossed crypto Twitter this week, with more than 4,200 likes at the time of publication.
But the forecasts themselves have reignited the big debate over the relationship between halving Bitcoin – which will cut the rate of new BTC entering the market in a matter of days – and the price of BTC.
According to PlanB, who recently told Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, that he was a member of an institutional investment team that manages about $ 100 billion in assets, his latest stock-to-model flow shows that the BTC reached $ 288,000 by the end of 2024..
The forecast analyzes the scarcity of Bitcoin by removing time and grouping Bitcoin’s growth in phases representing its transition from a proof of concept to a potential payment method, to a store of value, and then to a financial asset.
PlanB says that the relationship between the price of Bitcoin and its scarcity, determined by dividing the overall supply by its annual production, is co-integrated. The term implies that the relationship is particularly strong, as if the relationship and the price are related to each other.
Macro investor Raoul Pal said the new model, designed by PlanB to also assess gold and silver, offers a powerful method of analysis.
“This is what I saw in [PlanB’s] model when he first revealed it. It gives an excellent assessment not only of bitcoin, but also of gold and silver (and other similar assets). It is super powerful for relative valuations and direct valuations of all of these assets. Excellent work. “
However, the forecast is also gaining a lot of detractors, including economist Alex Krüger. he said the fact that Bitcoin’s scarcity is blocked and not random fundamentally destroys the predictive power of the model.
“The Stock to Flow and the price of Bitcoin are NOT co-integrated. Therefore, the Stock to Flow model has no predictive power. Stock to Flow cannot be used to predict the price. Stock to Flow and Price are not co-integrated because Stock to Flow is not a unitary root process, that is to say non-random …
[Bitcoin’s Supply] is determined by an algo. Not at random. Controlled provisioning is all about Bitcoin …
Please note that this is not subject to interpretation. It is not “all the models are wrong, but some are useful”. The S2F analysis is interesting. But the S2F model is useless for predicting the price, because the underlying assumptions of the model are not met. Now and always. ”
Another longstanding criticism of Bitcoin’s stock-flow graph is that it is based on a small number of data points, with Bitcoin going through just two previous halves in its short history.
Since these cuts, Bitcoin has also become increasingly institutionalized, which has led Meltem Demirors, Coinshares strategy director, to argue that the rise of futures contracts similar to CME has basically made the future price of Bitcoin much less predictable.
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