As cases increase, Department of Health says mathematical modeling suggests possible containment of Covid-19


Mathematical modeling studies suggest that containment of COVID-19 may be possible, but the success of containment operations “cannot be guaranteed” as there is effective human-to-human transmission, said the Union’s Department of Health on Saturday .

He also stated that there is no drug or vaccine approved for the treatment of COVID-19 at this time and that chemoprophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine is recommended for healthcare workers and high contacts risk.

“Since there is effective human-to-human transmission, the success of containment operations cannot be guaranteed.

Mathematical modeling studies suggest that containment may be possible, “said the Department of Health.

The government has developed a containment plan as clusters with a high risk of further spread of COVID-19 have emerged.

The cluster containment strategy aims to contain the spread of the disease in a geographic area defined by the early detection of cases, breaking the chain of transmission and thus preventing its spread to new areas.

For institutional mechanisms and intersectoral coordination at the national level, the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) and the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) will be activated. The NCMC will coordinate with the health and non-health sectors on matters reported by the Ministry of Health.

“The state concerned will activate the State Committee for Crisis Management or the State Authority for Disaster Management, as the case may be, to manage clusters of COVID-19,” said a document from the Ministry of Health.

There will be regular coordination meetings between the Center and affected states by videoconference, he said.

The document indicated that India would follow a strategic approach to possible scenarios – cases related to reported travel to India, local transmission of COVID-19, large outbreaks that could be contained, widespread community-based transmission of the disease and India becoming endemic for COVID- 19.

According to the document,>.

“Simply put, this is a barrier erected around the focus of the infection. Geographic quarantine should be applied to these areas signaling a significant epidemic and / or multiple clusters of COVID-19 spread over several blocks in one or more contiguous districts. ” It said.

The cluster containment strategy would include geographic quarantine, social distancing measures, enhanced active surveillance, testing of all suspected cases, case isolation, contact quarantine and risk communication to educate the public about preventive public health measures, the document says.

Regarding the evidence of the implementation of geographic quarantine, the document states that “the current geographic distribution of COVID-19 mimics the distribution of pandemic H1N1 flu”.

“This suggests that although the spread of COVID-19 in our population may be high, it is unlikely to affect all regions of the country uniformly,” said the ministry.

Large-scale measures to contain COVID-19 over large areas have been tried in China. Mathematical modeling studies have suggested that containment may be possible, particularly when other public health interventions are combined with an effective social distancing strategy, the document said.

The department has listed some of the factors affecting the containment of large hatch clusters.

A number of variables determine the success of containment operations through geographic quarantine, including the number and size of the cluster and also the efficiency with which the virus is transmitted in the Indian population, taking into account environmental factors, especially temperature and humidity, he said.

Factors also include the public health response in terms of active case detection, detection of large numbers of cases, immediate isolation of suspected and confirmed cases and contact quarantine as well as the geographic characteristics of The area.

According to the document, authorities will conduct a thorough contact search and actively search for cases in the containment area, test all suspected and high-risk contacts, isolate all suspected or confirmed cases, implement distancing measures social and intensive risk communication as part of the cluster containment strategy.

For major epidemics likely to be contained, the document said the strategy will remain the same but will vary in scope depending on the spread and the response to contain it.


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