The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been stagnating between $ 6,600 and $ 7,200 for the past few weeks, but ultimately, a breakout has occurred on the upside, which means a 10% surge towards $ 7,750.
But Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency that has shown its strength, as altcoins are also following suit with Cardano (ADA) jumping 22% and Ethereum (ETH) 16%.
So what can we expect from the markets with just over two weeks before the halving for Bitcoin?
Daily performance of the crypto market. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin breaks crucial resistance of $ 7.2K but then faces $ 7.8K
The price of Bitcoin stagnated between $ 6,800 and $ 7,300 for a few weeks, which made the price indecisive in which direction it wanted to go. The clear answer was given by a crucial break above the resistance zone of $ 7,300, as shown in the graph.
4 hour USD BTC chart. Source: TradingView
The price of Bitcoin kept the area of $ 6,800 earlier this week as support, after which it started to rumble for a resistance test. These were then broken on the upside, which brought a massive amount of shorts out of the market.
This compression resulted in a push to the next resistance level at $ 7,700 – $ 7,800, as shown in the graph.
Currently, a new range is defined for Bitcoin. Resistance ranges from $ 7,700 to $ 7,800, while support ranges from $ 7,275 to $ 7,350. As long as the price of Bitcoin remains above this level of support, additional upward pressure and momentum is warranted, particularly towards halving.
The $ 9,000 CME gap is still up for grabs
1 day BTC CME chart. Source: TradingView
The CME Futures BTC chart provides data on “spreads”. These differences are created during the weekend, because the CME futures contracts are not open on Saturdays and Sundays. The gaps are often used as an additional narrative for traders, which makes the current market rise interesting.
The graph shows a significantly large difference between $ 8,280 and $ 9,055, which should occur at some point. In addition to the current spread structure, several other spreads are on the rise, as there are others, specifically at $ 10,100 and $ 11,675.
Weekly recovers 100 week MA for support
1 week BTC USD chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear breakthrough in MA at 100 weeks. Closing above the MM at 100 weeks would give strength to the market.
However, further upward momentum should be warranted if the horizontal resistance level at $ 7,700 is broken upward. As the graph shows, a lawsuit towards $ 9,000 is envisaged if $ 7,700 breaks.
Total market cap holds $ 190 billion support and faces higher level
1-day chart of total market capitalization cryptocurrency. Source: TradingView
The chart of the total market capitalization cryptocurrency provides a clear view. The $ 190 billion area was maintained, which was crucial for any new upward momentum.
Currently, the total market capitalization chart faces the next level of resistance at $ 220 billion. Breaking this level would justify new upward momentum towards $ 235-245 billion for the cryptocurrency markets.
So what are the main levels of support now?
From the graph, I would like to see $ 202-207 billion in support, because that is the resistance that market capitalization has gone through. Once market capitalization is below this level, further downside tests to $ 175 billion are back on the table.
Altcoin’s market capitalization has increased by more than 100% in recent weeks
1-day chart of Altcoin’s total market capitalization cryptocurrency. Source: TradingView
Altcoin’s market capitalization is showing strength as capitalization has gained 111% since the big crash on Black Thursday.
Similar to the total market capitalization, a break above green levels has occurred in the past few days, resulting in upward movements for several altcoins.
The next breaking strength is the level of around $ 79-80 billion. Then, a new upward momentum should occur towards 92 to 94 billion dollars. However, expect to lose the green levels and tests to $ 66.57.5 billion.
The bullish scenario for the price of Bitcoin
Bullish scenario of the 4 hour BTC USD scenario. Source: TradingView
Either way, both scenarios are fairly straightforward, given that Bitcoin has separated from a side range. As long as the green levels around $ 7,300 are maintained as support, a new upward momentum is at stake.
In addition, the story in half is also becoming more and more important. Such a story could create FOMO (fear of missing out) and generate additional buying pressure before the event. However, be aware that these events generally end up “buying the rumor, selling the information”. In other words, a substantial rally before the event with a liquidation after the event should not be unexpected.
In all cases, holding $ 7,300 as support strengthens the bullish case. The price of Bitcoin could hover around this range for a while before attacking any of the levels.
A breakthrough in the $ 7,700 zone would probably justify a new upward dynamic with targets of $ 8,500 and $ 9,000 (because this is also the CME gap).
The downside scenario for the price of Bitcoin
4 hour chart of the BTC USD bearish scenario. Source: TradingView
The bearish scenario is also simple. If the price of Bitcoin starts to go up towards resistance but then sees a liquidation thereafter, a temporary peak should be. In particular, since the $ 7,700 zone was the last level of defense before the black Thursday BTC price crash.
If this level cannot be recovered as support, the lower levels must then be retested before the market can regroup for any upward movement.
Thus, a liquidation resulting in a new test of $ 7,250 and an immediate rejection of $ 7,400 would be a signal for a new downward dynamic with the next objectives at $ 6,800 and $ 6,500.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risks. You have to do your own research when you make a decision.