In the key state of Florida, the University of North Florida poll shows Biden won by 46-40% over Trump. What is amazing is not the margin but the percentage for Trump. (Anything below 50% traditionally signals problems for a holder). “The poll shows that 45% strongly or somewhat approve of the work Trump is doing to fight the pandemic, with 53% disapproving. … Trust in Trump is particularly lagging, with 41% having confidence and 58% not trusting his information about the virus. “)
Nationally, the picture is not much brighter for Trump. According to the IBD / TIPP poll, “the likely Democratic candidate Joe Biden saw his lead over Donald Trump widen in the last poll, although the number of those who said they would vote for him had dropped slightly. In total, 47% said they would vote for Biden, while only 41% said they would vote for Trump. Biden’s position has improved since March, when he led only three points. Once again, an outgoing president who draws only 41% in the middle of a national crisis seems rather weak. (Biden, incidentally, overwhelms Senator Bernie Sanders by a 62-30% margin among Democrats and Democratic Independents, yet another sign that the Vermont Senator has no path to the nomination.)
It’s important to keep a few things in mind.
First, we are only at the beginning of April, which means that Trump has seven months to convince voters that he has not failed to recognize the threat of the pandemic, has not failed to exercising presidential leadership, did not mislead the American people and did not relinquish their responsibility. worst domestic disaster in over 100 years.
Second, it is not impossible to turn the tide, but a protracted recession would spell disaster for an incumbent whose only boast was the economy. And a prolonged recession may well be where we are headed.
Rather than a “V” shaped economic trajectory – a deep recession and a rapid and abrupt recovery – many economists now see “an economy that may at first seem slower but which may be subject to stuttering, stalling and wheezing before finally reaching cruising speed ”. as CNBC reports. Former Federal Reserve President Janet L. Yellen painted a frightening picture in an interview on Monday. “If we had a timely unemployment stat, the unemployment rate would probably reach 12-13% at this point and increase,” she said, while predicting a drop of at least 30% in the domestic product. gross. Instead of a “V”, she worries about a “U” (prolonged slowdown) or worse, an “L” (slowdown and prolonged recession).
In short, we are witnessing an unprecedented phenomenon – a fleeting bump for the incumbent in the midst of a national crisis and a sustained advance for a challenger who is generally trapped in his basement. Maybe Trump’s daily rants don’t help him.