Toronto’s top doctor publishes graphs showing COVID-19 data. This suggests that the second wave is likely


Toronto health officials have released data slides showing how the city is progressing in its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Toronto medical officer of health Dr. Eileen de Villa told reporters on Monday that the city has started to flatten the curve successfully and is at its peak for COVID-19 cases.

De Villa’s first slide released on Tuesday shows that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases is weaker in Toronto than in some countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany.

first slide

“Unfortunately, these countries have seen a large number of cases since the start of their COVID-19 outbreaks,” De Villa said in a press conference on Tuesday.

“I believe, at this point, that the number of cases to date in Canada, Ontario and locally in Toronto is lower than initially forecast in part due to the rigorous public health measures that were put in place at the start of our and the fact that our residents took these measures seriously. “

De Villa reported Tuesday that there are now 3,820 cases of COVID-19 in Toronto and 190 people have died.

The second slide shows the number of COVID-19 cases in Toronto during the course of the epidemic. The graph shows a steady rise in cases and then a plateau.

slide 2“The second slide … shows that we think we are now at the peak of the epidemiological curve of our community epidemic,” noted De Villa.

“I use the term peak period because the peak is not really a single day or a single number … the reality is that we will not know until we reach our peak for COVID-19 cases after the peak . “

De Villa said that to really confirm that the peak had reached, authorities should see the number of new cases stabilize and then decline.

“As we go down the curve, the timeline of the epidemic may be longer or shorter,” she said.

“It depends in part on our ability as a community to remain diligent in following the public health and physical removal measures that we have put in place.”

The third slide shows the number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths to date due to COVID-19. The slides show once again that the numbers are steadily increasing and then reach a plateau.

slide 3

“This information helps us understand how we used the resources of the health system during this epidemic,” said De Villa. “The information on slide 3 should be viewed with cautious optimism. This shows that we are seeing our curve flatten out. “

She said the slide also illustrates the impacts of “our collective work” to prevent overloading the health system and to ensure that health resources stay in place for those “who need it most.”

“This is an important indicator for us to continue monitoring as we descend the curve,” said de Villa.

“This will help us plan and know when we can start to mitigate some of our local public health and physical distancing measures.”

She said the city will likely experience a second wave of COVID-19 because collective immunity against the disease has not yet been reached.

“We will continue to see COVID-19 spread in our community until we start to feel collective immunity,” she said. “This will not happen until many people become infected with COVID-19 and recover and develop lasting immunity or develop a vaccine.”

She said the last slide tells “the story of the two epidemics” in the city, a community and an institution.

slide 4

She said the four slides represent the main types of data analyzed by the city.


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