Theory explaining why the death toll from coronavirus in the UK seems to increase sharply on Tuesday


The daily death toll from coronaviruses in the UK, announced by the government every afternoon, has been increasing in recent weeks.

The country has recorded more than 9,000 deaths and nearly 70,000 cases as lockdowns continue to be imposed.

Around the world, the deaths of Covid-19 are also soaring, with the number now reaching more than 100,000 while nearly two million cases are reported worldwide.

In some parts of the world, including the United Kingdom, the so-called “Tuesday effect” seems to have settled – in which the number of recorded deaths appears to be increasing sharply that day.

Financial experts have suggested that this could be for a number of reasons – including a “weekend lag” in which official figures take longer than the usual 24 hours to be processed.

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Death toll seems to increase on Tuesday – possibly due to ‘weekend shift’ on official figures

In the NHS, a death is only officially registered when family members are informed – and processing of this communication with loved ones may be slower on a Saturday or Sunday.

Statistical editor for the Financial Times, John Burn-Murdoch wrote on Twitter: “Every Sunday and Monday, the reported deaths are less than Saturday. Every Tuesday, they increase sharply.

“My theory: we know that these numbers are assigned to a day based on when they can be reported, not on the death of the person.

UK could have Covid-19 type 3 epidemic

“We also know that these were deaths that occurred before the day of the report. The NHS England only reports a death after family members are informed.

“Intuition: the NHS makes fewer attempts or has more difficulty communicating with loved ones over the weekend (or another slowdown in treatment over the weekend.

Government press conference slides compare death toll in countries of the world
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“So, despite the deaths on Saturday and Sunday, fewer cases are treated this weekend, which depresses the figures reported on Sunday and Monday. “

He added: “And then on Monday, this processing / information bottleneck is eliminated, causing an overabundance of deaths in Tuesday’s report.”

Other countries have recorded similar trends in their death figures announced every Tuesday.

In response to John Burn-Murdoch’s tweet, Professor Jakob of Germany said: “We see exactly the same behavior in Germany. Sunday / Monday are the troughs, followed by the peaks of Tuesday.

“One possible explanation is that the local health authorities do not work on Sundays. If anything, it shows the usefulness of the 7-day method. “

Government launched campaign urging people to stay home over Easter

And another replied, “Something similar is happening in Spain. In the media, they called it the “Tuesday effect”.

“Since there are people who do not work on weekends, there is a delay in information especially in areas outside the big cities (at least that is what the media say here in Spain) . “

Other proposed theories included the fact that registry agents are not always accessible on weekends – as well as an unfortunate increase in the number of people who flout lockouts on weekends.

This weekend, the government warned the British to obey the lockdowns, stay home and save lives, despite the glorious Easter weather.

Dominic Raab said people should follow government foreclosure despite good Easter weekend weather forecast

The military and police can also patrol beaches and beauty spots to make sure people don’t congregate.

A police chief even warned that his forces were “days away” from imposing roadblocks.

The Devon & Cornwall force said it would patrol the M5 motorway at the Somerset / Devon border to deter tourists from the area.

Defense military police, based in Portsmouth and Plymouth, will operate along the coasts of Dorset, Devon and Cornall to ensure that people “do not gather unnecessarily,” i news reported on Thursday evening.

People enjoy the Good Friday sun at Windsor Great Park

Dominic Raab, representing Boris Johnson, said the government would not even begin to reassess the lockdown until the end of next week and urged the public to think “long and hard” about the impact on the heroic staff of the NHS s ‘he ignored the rules.

“After all the efforts everyone has made, after all the sacrifices made by so many people, let us not spoil it now,” said Mr. Raab.

A total of 18 NHS trusts in England have announced at least 100 deaths to date, according to figures from the NHS England.
Starting at 5 p.m. on April 8, the totals are as follows:
– University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust: 306
– London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust: 228
– King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: 204
– Barts Health NHS Trust: 189
– Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust: 189
– University hospitals of Derby & Burton NHS Foundation Trust: 138
– Croydon Health Services NHS Trust: 136
– NHS Foundation Trust for St George’s University Hospitals: 134
– Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust: 131
– The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust: 126
– Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust: 125
– Epsom & St Helier NHS Trust university hospitals: 122
– Lewisham & Greenwich NHS Trust: 118
– Sandwell & West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust: 116
– NHS Trust of the North Middlesex University Hospital: 114
– The Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust: 110
– Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust: 109
– South Tyneside & Sunderland NHS Foundation Trust: 105

“Let’s not reverse the gains we’ve made, let’s not waste the sacrifices made by so many. We must not give the coronavirus a second chance to kill more people and hurt our country. ”

Apologizing that people cannot spend time with their families at Easter, he added: “Deaths continue to increase. It is too early to lift the measures we have put in place. “

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Coronavirus epidemic

The ministers launched a “Stay at Home” advertising campaign designed to encourage sun lovers to think twice.

And sports and music stars supported the message. England and Manchester United footballer Marcus Rashford and Happy Mondays singer Shaun Ryder have joined key staff to record clips for a video released by Greater Manchester police.

The coronavirus lockout is a worrying time for millions of people in the UK.

But it also brings out the best in people who selflessly donate their time every day to help the needy.

Our Mirror Coronavirus Heroes series wants to recognize all those who help the most vulnerable during the crisis.

Whether it’s a local business that goes the extra mile for the community or a teenager helping an elderly neighbor, we want to hear about it.

You can send your Mirror Coronavirus Heroes stories to [email protected]

The rate of new infections appears to have slowed down and authorities are confident that the lockdown works.

Sources say they now believe that Britons with Covid-19 infect on average less than one person each.


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