The “beginning of change”? UK Chief Science Advisor Welcomes New COVID-19 Cases

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Sir Patrick Vallance, UK chief scientific adviser, said the statistics were starting to show the

Sir Patrick Vallance, UK chief scientific adviser, said the statistics were starting to show the “beginning of change” and that the coronavirus crisis in Britain did not seem to be accelerating

Britain’s top scientist has today offered the public a glimmer of hope that the strict cessation of coronaviruses will have an effect after official statistics reveal that the number of new cases of coronavirus diagnosed in recent 24 hours – 3634 – was the lowest in a week.

Sir Patrick Vallance said the sharp drop in the number of new cases diagnosed, starting at a peak of 5,903 on Sunday, suggested that efforts to “flatten the curve” were starting to pay off.

But chief science advisor and Foreign Minister Dominic Raab, who replaces the Prime Minister, urged caution, suggesting that it will be another week before experts know for sure if the battle is won and said that everyone should continue to follow the rules. home care and social distancing.

“Stepping on the pedal,” said Raab, would be the “worst thing” the country can do at this stage of the epidemic.

Today was Britain’s darkest day in its coronavirus crisis with 786 additional deaths confirmed in the past 24 hours, bringing the total death toll to 6,159 victims.

Speaking of new cases diagnosed while accompanying Dominic Raab at the daily press conference, Sir Patrick said: ‘Tit is not this great recovery in growth that we talked about at the beginning. There is a fairly constant increase in numbers – it is possible that we are starting to see a beginning of change in terms of flattening the curve a bit.

Today’s statistics arrive as Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care at London’s St Thomas’s Hospital after being transferred there last night. His spokesman said, however, that he is in a good mood, that he is breathing alone and that he has no pneumonia. Dominic Raab, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, replaces Mr. Johnson as assistant.

In fact, 854 deaths have been reported today when the individual announcements from the four UK countries are combined. Due to the different time frames used in counting methods across the UK, NHS England confirmed that 758 people have died in its hospitals, authorities in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland announcing 96 others.

The Department of Health, which calculates the official UK figure, uses a 5pm threshold the day before, which results in a lower count. Either the death toll is considerably higher than the 437 announced yesterday.

Another element of confusion comes from the fact that deaths are backdated up to 10 days or more, which means that deaths occurring days or even weeks ago are recorded at a later date, which means that the count from this day seems swollen.

For this reason, the true death toll in the UK could be 80% higher than current figures, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. The number announced on any given day will increase in the coming weeks as more deaths filter through the system and are backdated.

In other news about the current UK coronavirus crisis:

  • The Queen sent a message to Boris Johnson’s fiancé, Carrie Symonds, and the Johnson family, saying that they were on her mind and that she wished the Prime Minister “a full and speedy recovery”;
  • 10 Downing Street chief counselor Dominic Cummings is still working from home after self-isolating shortly after Mr. Johnson;
  • World leaders and politicians from around the world gathered around Mr. Johnson, who received sympathizers from David Cameron, Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump;
  • Health experts have warned that PM’s admission to intensive care means that he is “extremely sick” and that it is “likely” that he will eventually need a ventilator;
  • A statistical projection from the University of Washington suggests that the United Kingdom could become the most affected country in Europe, with 66,000 people dead because it does not have enough intensive care beds;
  • Research from University College London has indicated that closing schools will have a limited impact on the spread of the virus, but government counselor Professor Neil Ferguson has denied the claim.

Figures gathered by several sources and published at the Downing Street press conference tonight show how the death toll in the UK is accelerating alongside epidemics in other countries, such as Italy and Spain

Figures gathered by several sources and published at the Downing Street press conference tonight show how the death toll in the UK is accelerating alongside epidemics in other countries, such as Italy and Spain

Latest government statistics on the coronavirus epidemic show the number of new cases in the UK has dropped for the second day in a row

Latest government statistics on the coronavirus epidemic show the number of new cases in the UK has dropped for the second day in a row

Latest government statistics also show that growth in motor vehicle use has now declined after ministers urged motorists to stay at home

Latest government statistics also show that growth in motor vehicle use has now declined after ministers urged motorists to stay at home

Hospital admissions for coronavirus have continued to increase in many parts of the country today, but rates have dropped in North East and Yorkshire

Hospital admissions for coronavirus have continued to increase in many parts of the country today, but rates have dropped in North East and Yorkshire

The Downing Street press conference tonight was chaired by Foreign Minister Dominic Raab (center), who replaces the sick PM, the Surgeon General of England, Professor Chris Whitty (left) and the Chief Government Scientific Advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance (right)

The Downing Street press conference tonight was chaired by Foreign Minister Dominic Raab (center), who replaces the sick PM, the Surgeon General of England, Professor Chris Whitty (left) and the Chief Government Scientific Advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance (right)

Former head of the WHO cancer program, Professor Karol Sikora, said that the UK has already reached its peak and that infections are steadily decreasing. He warned that deaths would take some time to follow due to delay in recording deaths

Former head of the WHO cancer program, Professor Karol Sikora, said that the UK has already reached its peak and that infections are steadily decreasing. He warned that deaths would take some time to follow due to delay in recording deaths

DEATH IN THE UK MAY BE 80% HIGHER THROUGH DELAYED REGISTRATION

The actual number of coronavirus victims in England may be 80% higher than official figures due to a lag in the registration of deaths.

On March 27, the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs (DHSC) declared 926 COVID-19 deaths in hospitals across the country.

This figure was 78% lower than the 1,649 deaths recorded by the NHS England during the same period.

If the ratio has followed the same trajectory since then, the real death toll in England could be around 8,800, instead of 4,897 officials.

The actual number of coronavirus victims in England could be 80% higher than official figures

The actual number of coronavirus victims in England could be 80% higher than official figures

Indeed, it can take days – even weeks – before a death from a coronavirus is reported, recorded and reflected in the government’s overall count.

Data do not include Scotland or Northern Ireland – up to March 27, 80 people had died in these countries (34 in Wales, 33 in Scotland and 13 in Northern Ireland).

Meanwhile, statistics show that COVID-19 is now responsible for almost one in 20 deaths every week in England and Wales.

A medical worker is pictured in an ambulance outside St Thomas Hospital in London, where Prime Minister Boris Johnson is treated

A medical worker is pictured in an ambulance outside St Thomas Hospital in London, where Prime Minister Boris Johnson is treated

Speaking at the daily briefing in Downing Street, Sir Patrick Vallance said: “We will not know for sure for about a week. But what we don’t see is an acceleration.

“It is important that we keep these new cases low as this in turn results in the number of people hospitalized.

“The goal is to reduce the number of cases below the capacity of the NHS and save lives.

And Sir Patrick painted an identical picture when discussing hospital admissions, saying, “There was no accelerated takeoff and again, we may be starting to see the start of a change where we could see the numbers flatten out.

“We won’t be sure for another week or so. and we have to keep watching it.

“But this is starting to suggest that things could be going in the right direction in terms of numbers and it is important that we continue with the measures that we have put in place to make sure that this is going in the right direction. “

Asked whether the government had decided to extend the foreclosure, Raab said the worst thing the country could do was “step back” in terms of adhering to strict social distancing measures.

He said, “With regard to the review, we are not there yet.

“We will make any decision when the time comes, based on scientific and medical facts and advice.

“Our number one and overarching goal right now is to get the key message out that everyone should continue to adhere to these guidelines.

“There is a long Easter holiday weekend ahead, hot weather and we understand that people are making great sacrifices to follow these guidelines.

“It helps, it helps our ability to fight the coronavirus. The worst thing now would be to take your foot off the pedal, speed up and risk losing the gains.

“It is absolutely essential that people maintain this discipline and the vast majority will. We hope everyone will follow this example. “

London again recorded the most COVID-19 deaths of all regions of Britain today, with 224 other people dying from the coronavirus.

But other parts of England are also severely affected, with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland combined recording fewer deaths (96) than the Midlands (142) or the East of England. (101).

In the north-west, 90 new deaths have been recorded today, including 88 in the north-east and Yorkshire, 77 in the south-east and 36 in the south-west.

The combined individual figures for devolved countries represent more than the Ministry of Health’s total because the government stops counting at 5 p.m. the day before the figures are announced. While the other authorities continue until the next day.

For example, the official number of deaths from the Department of Health across the UK is 6,159 – but the real number is 6,236 when the numbers are summed for each nation (5,655 in England, 296 in Scotland, 212 in Wales and 73 in Northern Ireland).

Experts say that, in addition to different daily thresholds, reports are slower to process over the weekend, which means the numbers seem to start decreasing on Sunday and Monday, then go up around the middle of next week – for this reason, it is better not to give too much importance to the number of a single day.

Experts say that while it is important that the NHS focus on helping sick patients rather than counting them, the approach to statistics is confusing.

Professor Naismith, an expert in biology and statistics at the University of Oxford, said: “Current reporting methods mean that this daily assessment has value in terms of transparency, but it has become unnecessary and distracting to assess progress of the pandemic.

“The fluctuations in numbers we see are emotionally exhausting; hope one day and despair the next.

“Fluctuations happen for good reasons, NHS trusts don’t focus on reporting, but saving lives.

“Without forgetting the tragedy of these numbers, I have focused on data trends and hospital admissions as a more useful guide to our progress than the daily totals of deaths announced. “

Dr. Joshua Moon, researcher at the University of Sussex, said: “No day will reveal a trend. We need a much longer term view of all of this.

“Delays in reporting and testing, the number of mild or asymptomatic cases that are not tested and the uncertain quality of the data will greatly affect the ability to make decisions on all of this.” “

In Spain, officials acknowledged that deaths tended to accumulate over the weekend, to miss statistics released on Monday, and then to increase later in the week.

Figures in the UK show that the number of deaths tends to drop on Monday before a peak on Tuesday. Last week, however, the number continued to increase throughout the week from Tuesday.

Spain’s deputy director of emergency health, Maria Jose Sierra, stressed that Spain is still on the right track despite an increase in the number of deaths and new infections today.

She blamed the increase on an accumulation of cases that went unreported this weekend. It is not clear if the same thing is happening in the UK.

Ms. Sierra said, “This is due to the adjustment of the weekend. It’s still a downward trend. “

Boris Johnson April 3

Boris Johnson (pictured as his health deteriorated on April 3) spent the night in intensive care but there was “no change” in his coronavirus status

In brighter news for Britain this afternoon, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesperson confirmed that he was still in stable condition and breathing on his own.

The Prime Minister was placed in intensive care in Westminster last night around 7 p.m. because his fever had lasted more than 10 days.

His spokesperson says he is still “in a good mood” and that he has “standard oxygen therapy”, which would be gentle therapy via a mask or a nasal probe.

He was not diagnosed with pneumonia, Downing Street confirmed.

The 55-year-old spokesman said today, “The Prime Minister has remained stable overnight and remains in a good mood.

“He receives standard oxygen treatment and breathes without any other assistance. He did not require mechanical ventilation or non-invasive breathing assistance. “

In a series of radio interviews this morning, Cabinet Minister Michael Gove downplayed fears that the government would be paralyzed with the leader, insisting that Johnson had already been on a “stripped newspaper” for years. days and that “the Cabinet is the supreme decision-making body”,

However, within hours, it appeared that Mr. Gove himself had also been affected by the coronavirus, as he became self-isolated following a family member with symptoms.

55% OF CHILD CORONAVIRUS CASES ARE BOYS, ANNOUNCES CDC REPORT

Up to one in five children who get coronavirus need hospital care and fatal infection is more common in boys, according to official US figures.

Fifty-five percent of the 2,500 cases of coronavirus in people under the age of 18 were boys, according to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 42% were girls, while sex was unknown for 3%.

Compared to adults, children are less likely to have telltale symptoms and may not show any signs of the virus. According to the analysis, they are much less likely to be admitted to intensive care (2%) or to die (0.1%).

A separate CDC report from almost 75,000 patients also showed exactly how different conditions increase the risk of developing coronavirus complications in adults.

For example, half of former smokers or diabetics had to be hospitalized and / or placed in intensive care due to complications.

But the figures also only show that 1.3% of the 7,000 patients for whom complete data are available were current smokers. In comparison, about 14% of American adults smoke.

Other studies in China have also shown surprisingly low smoking rates, and a team of scientists from Wuhan – where the pandemic started – even suggested that smokers were in fact at higher risk.

The best experts who have gone through all the available evidence gathered on smoking and warn COVID-19 smokers are at higher risk for complications.

But they say the current warnings that smokers are at higher risk of getting the infection are based on assumptions and more testing is needed.

The sudden slowdown in PM occurred 11 days after he first suffered from coronavirus symptoms and isolated himself. He looked worse and worse when spotted in public and in selfie videos on social media, and the ministers were then shocked by his somber appearance at a Zoom conference on Sunday.

Sources from Downing Street confirmed that Johnson was not yet on a ventilator – but that he had been transferred to intensive care to be close to him if necessary. Some medical experts have said that the action plan is now “very likely.”

So far, two-thirds of UK ICU coronavirus patients have been ventilated for 24 hours after their arrival as the disease attacks their lungs.

Just two hours before his move to intensive care, Number 10 insisted that Mr. Johnson was still spearheading the government’s response to the coronaviruses, despite the fact that the de facto MP, Mr. Raab, presided over the morning crisis meeting.

However, shortly after the Minister of Foreign Affairs left the podium number 10 after the daily press briefing at 5:00 pm, Mr. Johnson, 55, suffered from respiratory problems.

Cabinet secretary Sir Mark Sedwill held an emergency videoconference with the cabinet to tell them the bad news, in a moment that a minister described as “really shocking”.

Downing Street was urged to be more “transparent” about the Prime Minister’s condition amid claims that a hospital bed was being prepared for him as of last Thursday.

Gove said today: “If his condition changes, we will make sure the country is updated.”

Downing Street said that Mr. Raab worked in the foreign ministry but was helped by “government-wide” officials as he coordinated the response to the coronavirus.

The spokesman said that Mr. Raab and the Cabinet could order military action without the Prime Minister’s consent. As first secretary of state, he would chair any meeting of the National Security Council.

If Mr. Raab were forced to isolate himself or fall ill, Chancellor Rishi Sunak would be the next to take over.

DOMINIC RAAB SAYS HE IS “CONFIDENT” THE PM WILL PASS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD AND CALL IT A “COMBATANT”

Foreign Minister Dominic Raab insisted tonight that he was “confident” that Boris Johnson would “fight” his intensive care battle against the coronavirus when the de facto Prime Minister called his boss “a fighter “

The Minister of Foreign Affairs has been charged with managing the country after Mr. Johnson was hospitalized last night after his medical condition worsened.

But Raab said he expected Johnson to return to the stand “shortly” to lead the fight against the deadly disease.

Mr. Raab’s rise to the top of the hierarchy triggered a wave of questions about the amount of Prime Minister’s power he took up amid concerns over the extent to which the government could respond to new developments without obtain prior approval from Mr. Johnson.

But Mr. Raab, the first secretary of state, said tonight that the locum model currently in use will be fit for use and resilient enough to handle unforeseen events.

“I have full confidence in the arrangements that the Prime Minister has put in place so that I can discharge his responsibility, replacing him while he is out of action and we obviously hope that it will be for a period very limited time. ,’ he said.

Dominic Raab said today that he is

Dominic Raab said today that he is “confident” that Boris Johnson will “fight” his battle against the coronavirus and that the PM will be back “within a short time”

Former cabinet member and peer Tory, Baroness Nicky Morgan, described Mr. Johnson’s condition as “disturbing,” adding that she understood it was “a skeleton staff now” in Downing. Street.

Speaking to ITV News, former Prime Minister David Cameron said, “Well, this is obviously very disturbing news and we all pray for Boris and think about him and pray and think about his family.

“And hopefully he will recover soon and come back to number 10, where I know he wants to be and where we all want him to be.”

“Boris is a very tough, resilient and very fit person, I know that by facing him on the tennis court and I am sure he will get by.

“I know he will want to heal and regain control, and that is what we all want for him. And we hope and pray that it will be and that it will be very soon.

Mr. Johnson was conscious last night and had not been intubated – the process of putting a tube into the windpipe to facilitate breathing.

He needed about four liters of oxygen rather than the 15 liters used by the average Covid-19 intensive care patient, according to the Times.

Raab said tonight he was “confident” that Boris Johnson would “fight” his intensive care battle against the coronavirus when the de facto Prime Minister called his boss “a fighter.”

The Minister of Foreign Affairs has been charged with managing the country after Mr. Johnson was hospitalized last night after his medical condition worsened.

But Raab said he expected Johnson to return to the stand “shortly” to lead the fight against the deadly disease.

Mr. Raab’s rise to the top of the hierarchy triggered a wave of questions about the amount of Prime Minister’s power he took up amid concerns over the extent to which the government could respond to new developments without obtain prior approval from Mr. Johnson.

But Mr. Raab, the first secretary of state, said tonight that the locum model currently in use will be fit for use and resilient enough to handle unforeseen events.

“I have full confidence in the arrangements that the Prime Minister has put in place so that I can discharge his responsibility, replacing him while he is out of action and we obviously hope that it will be for a period very limited time. ,’ he said.

Britain could be the worst coronavirus country in Europe with 66,000 deaths in the first wave of the epidemic – three times Italy’s forecast – due to the shortage of hospital beds and NHS Intensive Care Capacity, Scientists Warn

Britain could suffer more than 60,000 coronavirus deaths and be hit harder by the epidemic than any nation in Europe, according to leading scientists.

Modeling by researchers at the University of Washington predicted that 151,680 people would die from the virus across the continent.

He revealed that the UK could register 66,300 deaths from COVID-19 in July, almost half (44%) of all deaths in Europe and three times more than in Italy (20,000) .

Spain (19,000) and France (15,000) will also experience huge losses, predicted, largely based on intensive care and hospital bed capacity.

Researchers predict that Britain will need 100,000 beds by mid-April to cope with the crisis, down from 17,765 currently available.

But the alarming projection does not take into account the thousands of beds that will become available in the new hospitals of the NHS Nightingale.

The number is also in stark contrast to forecasts by leading science advisers in the UK, who warned that around 20,000 people would die during the crisis.

Modeling by the University of Washington medical school predicts that Britain's epidemic will peak in the middle of this month. Researchers predict that Britain will need 100,000 beds by then, up from 17,765 currently available.

Modeling by the University of Washington medical school predicts that Britain’s epidemic will peak in the middle of this month. Researchers predict that Britain will need 100,000 beds by then, compared to 17,765 currently available.

Researchers say Italy has already peaked

Spain too

Modeling suggests that the epidemics in Italy (left) and Spain (right), where hundreds of deaths have been reported daily for weeks, may have peaked. Daily deaths in both countries declined for several days

Countries across Europe, including the UK, Italy and Spain, have seen the number of people who have died from coronaviruses fall in recent days, raising hopes that their outbreaks may slow

Countries across Europe, including the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain, have seen the number of people who have died from coronaviruses fall in recent days, raising hopes that their outbreaks may slow

HOW DO THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES COMPARE THROUGHOUT EUROPE?
COUNTRYPREDICTED DEATH (TOTAL)HIGH SCHEDULED (DAILY)BEDS AVAILABLENECESSARY BEDSBED SHORTAGESHORTAGE ICUNECESSARY FANSPEAK
United Kingdom66,3142,93217,765102,79485,02923,74520,862April 17
ITALY20,30096942,52128,9644,9625,967March 27
SPAIN19,20995031,79029,1125,8586,139First of April
GERMANY8,802377147.93812,2222,497April 19
FRANCE15,05886574,81225,3714,1275,005April 5
BELGIUM3,54621226,7486,7988141,371April 6
NETHERLANDS5,80824130,9467,8991,0011,632April 6
DENMARK529222,51476095159April 6
SWEDEN4,1821341.80846322,8241,090994April 27
IRELAND401223.30371288135April 6
NORWAY669243.804851103173April 19
PORTUGAL471376,742954114192April 3

HOW DID RESEARCHERS PREVENT THE DEATH OF COVID-19?

The University of Washington team scanned local and international data on the number of coronavirus cases.

They also used age-specific mortality breakdowns from Italy, China and the United States – the three countries most affected so far.

The team used this data to create a mathematical model that predicts the trajectory of epidemics in each country.

To determine the death toll, scientists looked at the number of hospital beds and the capacity for intensive care in each country.

They predicted that 102,794 coronavirus patients will need hospital beds at the height of the epidemic in the UK, compared to 17,765 beds currently available.

The researchers also predict that 24,544 of these patients will need to be transferred to intensive care, where there are only 744 critical care beds currently free.

Using local and international data on the number of cases, as well as breakdowns of mortality by age in Italy, China and the United States, researchers at the University of Washington have modeled the number of expected deaths. country by country.

They said a key consideration was the number of hospital beds and the capacity of intensive care in each country.

The model predicts that 102,794 coronavirus patients will need hospital beds by April 17, the peak of the epidemic in the UK, compared to 17,765 beds currently available.

Il prévoit que 24 544 de ces patients devront être transférés en soins intensifs, où il n’y a que 744 lits en soins intensifs actuellement gratuits.

Mais les sombres prévisions n’incluent pas les près de 10 000 lits actuellement disponibles dans les hôpitaux temporaires du NHS Nightingale à Londres, Birmingham, Manchester, Harrogate et Bristol.

Le modèle ne tient pas compte non plus des hôpitaux de fortune construits en Écosse, au Pays de Galles et en Irlande du Nord – qui libèrent des centaines de lits de soins intensifs supplémentaires.

La plupart des pays européens ont introduit des mesures strictes de distanciation sociale pour tenter de juguler la propagation du virus début mars.

Mais le gouvernement britannique a mis plus de quinze jours pour emboîter le pas, initialement ferme contre une vague d’action européenne qui a vu la fermeture d’écoles, de pubs et de restaurants.

Les chiffres montrent comment le nombre croissant de morts au Royaume-Uni se compare à d'autres pays avec des épidémies similaires, dont l'Espagne, les États-Unis, l'Italie, l'Allemagne et la France

Les chiffres montrent comment le nombre croissant de morts au Royaume-Uni se compare à d’autres pays avec des épidémies similaires, dont l’Espagne, les États-Unis, l’Italie, l’Allemagne et la France

Des milliers de lits supplémentaires prévus dans les stades, les centres de loisirs et les hôtels pour faire face au coronavirus

Des hôpitaux de fortune ont été assemblés à travers la Grande-Bretagne pour libérer plus de lits d’hôpitaux et empêcher le NHS de se laisser submerger.

Les capacités temporaires supplémentaires en cours de développement comprennent désormais:

  • Birmingham: un hôpital NHS Nightingale au National Exhibition Centre ajoutera 500 premiers lits, avec le potentiel de passer à 2 000 si nécessaire.
  • Manchester: un hôpital NHS Nightingale au Central Convention Complex ajoutera 500 lits, avec une capacité de 1 000 lits.
  • Glasgow: le NHS Louisa Jordan Hospital est en cours de construction au Scottish Events Campus (SEC). L’hôpital fournira au départ 300 lits avec la possibilité d’augmenter le nombre de patients à 1 000 si nécessaire. On pense que l’établissement sera prêt à ouvrir dans les deux prochaines semaines et porte le nom d’une infirmière de Glasgow de la Première Guerre mondiale qui a perdu la vie en Serbie.
  • Ailleurs en Écosse: le premier ministre Nicola Sturgeon a déclaré que le gouvernement écossais souhaitait quadrupler le nombre de lits de soins intensifs à plus de 700, mais il semble que cela se produira dans les installations hospitalières existantes.
  • Harrogate: le centre de convention de la ville est en cours de conversion pour accueillir jusqu’à 500 patients du Yorkshire et du nord-est de l’Angleterre.
  • Bristol: Un site est en cours de préparation à l’Université de l’ouest de l’Angleterre qui accueillera jusqu’à 1 000 patients.
  • Cardiff: Deux mille lits sont mis à disposition au stade de la Principauté.
  • Ailleurs au pays de Galles: plus de 4 000 autres lits seront créés par des hôpitaux de campagne construits dans des centres de loisirs, des écoles et des stades. Il s’agit notamment de plus de 350 au Parc y Scarlets à Llanelli et un nombre similaire au Venue Cymru à Llandudno. Une ancienne usine et des studios de cinéma sont en cours de conversion à Swansea, ce qui ajoutera 850 lits supplémentaires au cours des quatre prochaines semaines.
  • Les autres hôpitaux de campagne annoncés au Pays de Galles comprennent le Bluestone National Park Resort; Centre de sport et de loisirs de Brailsford, Bangor; Centre de loisirs de Cardigan; Centre de loisirs de Carmarthen; Bureau du Conseil, Abercynon; Deeside Leisure Centre; Hôpital universitaire Grange, Cwmbran; Académie des sports de Llandarcy, Neath; Port Talbot; École Penweddig, Aberystwyth; Centre de loisirs Plascrug, Ceredigion; Centre Selwyn Samuel, Llanelli; Ty Trevithick, Abercynon; et le Vale Resort, Vale of Glamorgan.
  • Belfast: le City Hospital est en train de devenir l’hôpital Nightingale d’Irlande du Nord et comprendra 230 lits de soins intensifs.
  • Cumbria: des plans locaux sont en cours pour fournir 500 lits supplémentaires dans les centres de loisirs du comté. Des équipements sont en cours d’installation au Whitehaven Sports Centre, au Sands Center à Carlisle, au Penrith Leisure Centre et au Kendal Leisure Centre, ainsi qu’à la Furness Academy de Barrow.
  • Wigan: Une salle d’urgence est en cours de construction sur un parking de l’hôpital pour fournir 52 lits supplémentaires dans le nord-ouest.

Des voies d’évaluation des coronavirus au volant à Whitstable font partie des nouvelles installations mises en place dans le Kent.

Des tests de conduite sont en cours dans d’autres endroits en dehors de Londres, notamment au terrain de cricket d’Edgbaston à Birmingham et au siège de Boots à Nottingham.

Celles-ci s’ajouteront à l’installation qui fonctionne déjà au Chessington World of Adventures à Surrey.

Le Premier ministre Boris Johnson, qui est lui-même traité en soins intensifs avec COVID-19, a fait l’objet de critiques énormes pour la lenteur avec laquelle son gouvernement a réagi à la pandémie.

À l’heure actuelle, environ 6 000 des personnes sont décédées de COVID-19 en Grande-Bretagne – beaucoup moins que les 16 523 en Italie et 13 341 en Espagne.

Mais l’épidémie de Grande-Bretagne est à la traîne de ces pays, car un patient souffrant de coronavirus peut mettre jusqu’à trois semaines à développer des symptômes, à tomber gravement malade et à mourir.

Cela signifie que des dizaines de patients qui ont attrapé le virus avant que les restrictions sociales ne soient imposées doivent encore tomber gravement malades et succomber au virus.

Les chercheurs de l’Université de Washington prédisent que l’épidémie de la Grande-Bretagne atteindra un pic le 17 avril.

Modeling suggests that the epidemics in Italy and Spain, where hundreds of deaths have been reported daily for weeks, may have passed their peak.

Daily deaths in the two countries declined for several days.

Mais la Grande-Bretagne est probablement à plus d’une semaine pour maîtriser son bilan, car la capacité de soins intensifs est dépassée, selon l’auteur principal Christopher Murray, chercheur en santé mondiale et en santé publique à l’université.

Il a déclaré que les modèles mathématiques prennent en compte l’effet de la distanciation sociale.

M. Murray a ajouté: «Il est évident que la distanciation sociale peut, lorsqu’elle est bien mise en œuvre et maintenue, contrôler l’épidémie, entraînant une baisse des taux de mortalité.

«  Ces pays ont frappé très fort au début des ordres de distanciation sociale mis en œuvre et peuvent avoir le pire derrière eux car ils voient des progrès importants dans la réduction de leurs taux de mortalité.

«La trajectoire de chaque nation changera – et de façon dramatique pour le pire – si les gens diminuent la distance sociale ou assouplissent d’autres précautions.»

Dimanche, l’équipe a prédit un peu plus de 80 000 décès liés au COVID-19 américain lors de la première vague de la pandémie.

M. Murray a ajouté: «Nous nous attendons à quelques semaines inquiétantes pour les habitants de nombreuses régions d’Europe. Il semble probable que le nombre de décès dépassera nos prévisions pour les États-Unis. “

La semaine dernière, le directeur médical national du NHS a déclaré que le Royaume-Uni s’en sortirait bien s’il traversait la crise des coronavirus avec moins de 20 000 décès.

Lorsqu’on lui a demandé s’il espérait que le Royaume-Uni n’était pas sur la même trajectoire que des pays comme l’Italie, Stephen Powis a déclaré: « Si nous pouvons maintenir les décès en dessous de 20 000, nous aurons très bien réussi dans cette épidémie ».

«  S’il est inférieur à 20000 … ce serait un bon résultat même si chaque décès est une tragédie, mais nous ne devons pas être complaisants à ce sujet  », a déclaré Powis, lors d’une conférence de presse à Downing Street aux côtés du secrétaire aux affaires Alok Sharma.

Il a dit que le NHS avait travaillé incroyablement dur pour augmenter la capacité de soins intensifs au-delà des 4000 lits qu’il avait généralement.

M. Powis a insisté sur le fait que la fourniture d’équipement de protection individuelle (EPI) au personnel de santé était une «priorité absolue», car il a détaillé le nombre de produits envoyés.

More than 170million of the ‘very highest level masks’ have been dispatched ‘in the last couple of weeks,’ he said.

He added 40million gloves had been sent in recent days, as well as 25million face masks and 30million aprons. So vast numbers going out,’ he said.

‘We’re strengthening the supply chain every day to ensure that every organisation gets the equipment that they need, that’s an absolute priority for us.’

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