Small business deficit leaves homeowners in trouble: live updates


For more than four decades, China has never recognized that its economy has actually shrunk, even during major economic crises. But that could change Friday, when the country announces its gross domestic product for the quarter from January to March.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China already confirmed last month that national industrial production, retail sales and investment had all registered record double-digit declines in the first two months of this year compared to the same. period of 2019. This prompted most, but not all, economists to guess that overall economic performance for the first quarter of this year will show a decline from the previous year.

The question is, how big will the drop be?

A survey of 18 Chinese and foreign institutions by Caixin, a Chinese news agency, revealed that they expected the economy to stabilize at 11.5% in the first quarter. The average forecast was 6.6%.

A larger Reuters survey of 57 analysts found an even wider range of forecasts – ranging from a 28.9% dive to a 4% gain. But the Reuters survey average, a loss of 6.5%, was almost identical to that of Caixin.

Foreign banks, which face only slightly less political pressure than Chinese institutions to issue sunny forecasts, tend to be at the lower end of the range.

Catching up: here’s what’s going on.

  • The Department of Transport widely rejected requests for JetBlue and Spirit Airlines to stop flying to multiple destinations, service that is required under the terms of the federal stimulus package. The decision suggests that the ministry is unlikely to grant the majority of these exemption requests, many of which were made by small carriers.

  • AmazonJeff Bezos founder said the company is developing its own coronavirus testing capabilities, including building a laboratory, and is preparing to start testing a small number of workers soon. In an annual letter to shareholders, Bezos also advocated “regular global testing across all industries” as a way to reopen the economy.

  • Morgan Stanley, the smallest of the major Wall Street banks, announced a 30% drop in profits for the first quarter. Driven by declining fund management and investment activities as well as higher costs related to both higher loss pads and solid quarter trading volumes, Morgan Stanley profits fell to $ 1.7 billion for the quarter, with overall revenues down 8% to $ 9.5 billion.

  • California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Wednesday ordering the state unemployment agency to pay workers benefits Uber and Lyft through a federal assistance program for the self-employed. He said the state would also provide assistance to undocumented workers, many of whom were unable to obtain federal assistance during the pandemic despite the payment of local and state taxes.

The reports were provided by Michael M. Grynbaum, Alexandra Stevenson, Davey Alba, Neil Irwin, Nelson D. Schwartz, Liz Alderman, Alan Rappeport, Kate Kelly, Keith Bradsher, Niraj Chokshi, Caitlin Dickerson, Miriam Jordan, Jim Tankersley, Stacey Cowley, Emily Cochrane, Emily Flitter, Reed Abelson, Sapna Maheshwari, Ben Casselman, Noam Scheiber, Genève Abdul, Mohammed Hadi, Carlos Tejada and Mike Ives.


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