Quebec health officials have released their projections for the timeline and magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province.
The projection reveals two scenarios: an optimist, a pessimist – depending on how Quebecers adhere to public health orders.
In the optimistic scenario, by April 30, Quebec will experience a peak of:
In the pessimistic scenario, by April 30, Quebec will see a peak of:
There are only 633 intensive care beds in the province, so the worst case scenario would be nearly 400 ICU patients without beds.
In both scenarios, the peak of the COVID-19 crisis would occur between April 15 and 20.
As of April 7, there were 9,340 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Quebec and 150 deaths.
There are 583 Quebecers treated for COVID-19 in hospitals, including 164 in intensive care.
The projection is based on current Quebec data, as well as on models from two countries – Italy and Portugal – based on the speed with which they intervened and whether the residents complied with the guidelines.
The assistant to the Minister of Health, Yvan Gendron, and the Quebec strategic medical advisor in public health, Richard Massé, unveiled the scenarios of the COVID-19 curve in Quebec during a press conference in the afternoon.
It is very difficult to say whether the actual numbers will approach the optimistic or pessimistic mark, said Massé who said that if we follow the guidelines for self-isolation we will be closer to the optimistic number of cases and deaths.
Massé underlined a mobility study carried out by Google which showed that Quebecers are the most compliant in terms of home stay compared to residents of the 10 provinces and 50 states of North America.
Public health officials say they refuse to project numbers beyond April 30 as there are too many factors that can change the data, even in the short term, including compliance, drugs and vaccines possible.
“Week after week, we will be providing data that will show where we are,” said Massé. “The more we progress on the curve, the less we are sure of the figures … so we prefer to stay close and have good projections.”
They also said they would not provide a date for the reopening of non-core businesses.
SEE THE PROJECTIONS
On Friday, Ontario released its forecast, predicting that with physical distance measures in place, 1,600 people will die from the virus by April 30. Without any measures, 6,000 people could have died at the end of the month.
The model predicts that as of April 30, there will be 80,000 cases of COVID-19 in Ontario. He suggests that without the current health measures in place, there would be 300,000 cases by the end of the month.
Modeling predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic could last between 18 months and two years, between 3,000 and 15,000 people in the province dying from COVID-19 with health measures already in place.
Without any public health measures, worst-case modeling predicts up to 100,000 deaths in this province.