Ottawa releases new COVID-19 modeling data

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According to new COVID-19 modeling projects, there could be up to 3,883 deaths in Canada by May 5.

The latest data shows – as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said – that the public health measures Canadians are taking are working and “in many parts of the country the curve has flattened.”

In the short term, Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says Canada is on track to hit between 53,196 cases and 66,835 cases and between 3,277 and 3,883 deaths by next week .

Overall, the spread of cases has stabilized in several provinces, although cases in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta are driving the current epidemic growth, said Tam. Compared to other countries, epidemic growth in Canada has been slower, with the current number of new cases doubling every 16 days.

By the time the initial screenings were made, Canadian cases were doubling between every three to five days, said Dr. Tam.

“Based on the best data available, this is an updated picture of where we think we are right now, where we think things will go from here,” said Trudeau before the meeting. of information.

The latest modeling indicates that older Canadians and men are at greater risk of serious consequences from contracting COVID-19, with people over the age of 60 accounting for 95% of deaths in this country. Almost 80% of all deaths are related to long-term care facilities.

In recent weeks, the data continues to indicate that some provinces appear to be at their peak or even potentially descend to the other side of their curve with little or no new cases discovered in certain regions.

Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. Canada has 49,040 cases of COVID-19 with 2,769 deaths and 18,720 cases resolved.

Windsor-Essex has 581 positive cases, 43 deaths and 159 resolved cases.

– With CTV News files

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