NFL Draft: Building a fake project based mainly on what the betting odds tell us – Part I

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The biggest live event on the spring calendar is less than a week away.

With the rest of the sports world closed due to COVID-19, anticipation continues to build towards the NFL 2020 draft, which takes place practically from April 23 to 25, with the first round Thursday evening starting at 8 p.m. h. ET and running until 11:30 p.m.

At this point, most football fans have already read their fair share of fake projects.

However, even the best NFL Draft experts will admit how difficult it is to navigate the unpredictability of the 32 general managers in the league.

It is easy to understand why it is so difficult to predict how the selection process will unfold.

Perspective is important, which led us to this question:

What would the NFL 2020 draft look like if the choices were dictated by the betting odds we see in the aftermarket?

We took the time to build a fake project based mainly on this information.

Here’s a look at the top 10 picks for the 2020 NFL Draft dictated by sports betting odds published by Bodog.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Joe Burrow, LSU

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Burrow is the first global choice.

Bengals cannot let the reset button pass with a legitimate franchise quarterback.

Coming from one of the best college football seasons ever in this position, Burrows is listed at -10000 to be first overall.

2. Washington Redskins: DE Chase Young, State of Ohio

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Young is listed at -1400 to be drafted second in the general classification.

There is always the possibility that a team may try to trade up to No. 2 if they become sufficiently in love with a quarterback.

However, the fact that this line has already gone from -1200 to -1400 in the past two days seems to reaffirm the position that Young’s cap is too high for Washington to continue with this choice.

3. Detroit Lions: CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State

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Bodog considers the Burrow, Young, Okudah trifecta to be the most likely exact result of the first three choices with a rating of -125.

Detroit is listed at -600 to use his first choice on a defender.

Okudah is the betting favorite to finish third overall with an odds of -110.

This choice has been a popular commercial target in mock-up projects that feature teams who wish to ride to select a quarterback.

However, with the bet on / under the bets on props for Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert respectively fixed at 4.5 and 5.5, the odds dictate that the Lions stay put and take Okudah third in the general classification.

4. New York Giants: OT Tristian Wirfs, Iowa

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This choice is where things get interesting from a betting perspective.

Earlier this week, Bodog had Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama as a betting favorite to be the second offensive player drafted after Burrows with a +150 odds.

Since then, Tagovailoa has dropped to +235 to be the second offensive draft player, while teammate Jedrick Wills Jr. has become the betting favorite at +200.

The Giants are listed at -220 to select an attacking player and they need help in tackling, so Wills would make sense in fourth.

However, when we look at the prop project for the first draft offensive lineman, it is Wirfs listed as a favorite at -140 compared to Wills at +165.

In addition, Bodog’s Who Will Be Drafted First accessory bet lists the Wirfs at -170 vs. Wills at +130 in a duel.

All things considered, Wirfs is the most logical in fourth place in the general classification.

5. Miami Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

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Trades are the most unpredictable aspect of the NFL draft.

Although the betting odds initially dictated that the Dolphins should trade to select Tagovailoa, the latest update requires them to stay put and land their fifth franchise franchise.

No one will be shocked if a team swaps the Tagovailoa project.

However, his recovery position is fixed at more than 4.5 -240.

Much has been said about Herbert being the second quarterback on the board.

Bodog in Miami has the money to take one from Tagovailoa and Herbert.

However, Tagovailoa remains at least temporarily the slight favorite compared to Herbert in Bodog’s incidental bet “Who Will Be Drafted First” at -135 to -105, so he takes advantage of this choice.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon

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Another interesting note from Bodog: L.A. is listed at +110 for being the team that writes Herbert versus +150 for being the team that gets Tagovailoa.

While they might be tempted to grab one of the best defensive hopes still on the field, the Chargers are listed at -550 to attack with their first draft pick.

Herbert remains the betting favorite to be the third quarterback in the table at -115.

This choice also corresponds to Herbert’s draft position on / under prop at 5.5.

7. Carolina Panthers: LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson

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Carolina is registered at -550 to spot a defensive player with his first choice.

Panthers Receive Absolute Gift Here With Simmons – Ideal Replacement For Retirees Luke Kuechly.

Simmons is listed at -4500 to be the first linebacker outside the table.

The backing position of the Clemson linebacker on / under is fixed at 6.5.

8. Arizona Cardinals: OT Jedrick Wills Jr., Alabama

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To acquire ByAndre Hopkins without spending a first round pick means Arizona can meet another immediate need with a # 8 tackle.

This choice also corresponds to Wills’ position on / under at 8.5.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: DL Derrick Brown, Auburn

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It was another interesting choice as Jacksonville is the betting favorite to write Utah State quarterback Jordan Love with a +300 odds.

While they could still be on the market for a quarterback, Bodog has the Jaguars listed at -200 to use their first pick on a defenseman.

The favorite bet to be the second defensive lineman drafted at -450, this selection also corresponds to Brown’s draft position on / under at 8.5.

10. Cleveland Browns: OT Mekhi Becton, Louisville

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This selection also ticks the boxes for a team that needs protection assistance.

Cleveland is listed at -600 to pass its first selection in attack.

Becton fills a large gap as the best tackle remaining on the board.

Becton’s provisional position prop was bet over 8.5-190.

Note: The second part of this two-part series on NFL accessory bets will take place in the evening of Monday, April 20 at TSN.ca

* All betting information appears as listed by Bodog on Friday April 17, 2020.



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