“It has its place. It’s not magic, it’s just one of the tools, “said Stefan Gildemeister.
The model predicts the number of daily cases, the number of people in intensive care and the number of Minnesotans who died. These projections come from known data connected to the model. The good news is that every day that goes by brings more of this data.
“As new evidence emerges, our contributions will improve. We will learn more about the disease and, more importantly, we will learn more about the disease in Minnesota, “said Stefan Gildemeister.
The latest version of the Minnesota model predicts 9,000 to 30,000 deaths, peaking somewhere in the next 13 to 21 weeks. This is pretty much the current order to stay at home.
Compare that to what the model shows without social distancing, up to 68,000 deaths and a peak that could occur in 5 weeks, which could overwhelm hospitals.
“There is a lot of work going on between the healthcare industry and the administration to increase the number of intensive care beds,” said Stefan Gildemeister.
The important grain of salt with all this. Models still have uncertainty. It’s like predicting the weather, focusing on the fact that snow is coming, not the exact number of inches.
“They’re designed to give you an idea of trends and a range of solutions,” said Mike Augustyniak of WCCO.
Executives will continue to view the models as a guide and say we can expect more refinement and improvement of the formula in the coming weeks.