Live coronavirus updates: 1.6 million cases worldwide


On April 9, medical staff transferred a deceased patient to a makeshift morgue at the Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York.
On April 9, medical personnel moved a deceased patient to a makeshift morgue at the Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York. Angela Weiss / AFP / Getty Images

The most recent version of an influential coronavirus model – which is often cited by the White House – predicts that some states, such as New York and New Jersey, have surpassed their peaks in daily deaths.

New York’s the maximum number of deaths, for example, is listed as April 9 on the model. New Jersey peak is listed as April 8.

Other large states are now approaching their peaks, according to the model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

California is expected to peak daily deaths within a week on April 15. The state is expected to see 66 deaths that day.

Pennsylvania is expected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching a peak of death on April 17, when 63 people are expected to die.

For other large states – such as Florida and Texas – the worst should happen later. April 27 and 28 respectively.

A certain context: While it is unclear when the state plans to return to normal, lifting social distancing measures too early – before the peak, for example – could re-launch transmission and cost lives.

The current version of the model indicates that it expects social distancing until the end of May and assumes that states will adopt other measures – such as mass screening and contact tracing – that will prevent any resurgence of the virus.

The institute previously told CNN that the projections assumed social distancing until August, as the model’s FAQs had indicated in language that has now been removed.

But on Thursday, institute director Chris Murray said it wasn’t really the case – despite what a professor behind the model and a spokesperson for the institute both said earlier.


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