IMF. Predicts worst slowdown since the Great Depression

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“This is another kind of Great Depression,” he said. “It’s a different type of shock and it’s played in different ways at a very different speed. “

Governments around the world are trying to figure out how and when to reopen part of their economy in the hopes of reviving trade. President Trump is expected to make an announcement this week that could provide guidance for reducing home stay orders.

But the economic recovery is expected to be slow until people are convinced it is safe.

“Even if spending begins fully in April, we see little chance of a significant recovery in activity in the immediate future,” JPMorgan economists wrote in a research note of April 9, noting that the reopening could result in a relapse. “We don’t think the bottom of the current recession will come at the earliest in May. “

Bank of America economists said in a research note that “the coronavirus will cause the deepest post-war recession in US history,” predicting a growth rate of 6% for l ‘whole year.

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said a quick rebound was unlikely, especially if people continued to worry about getting sick.

“We know that after the Great Depression, people carried the scars of this experience with them for many, many years,” Kashkari said in an interview with “Today” on NBC. “I think the longer it lasts, the more people will be affected by it, the longer the recovery will be.”

This view is not monolithic. Another Fed official suggested on Tuesday that the closure cost $ 25 billion a day in lost output and that general tests should be available to get people back to work.

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