How Ontario’s COVID-19 Models Compare to Reality


Last week, Ontario officials released modeling data on how COVID-19 is expected to spread in the province.

With current health measures in place, experts are predicting between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths in the province during the pandemic.

The models also predict that as of April 30, there will be 80,000 cases of COVID-19 in Ontario and 1,600 deaths.

Modeling data predicted that, at best, by April 7, about 800 people will be in intensive care across the province. On Tuesday, according to Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Chief Medical Officer of Health for Ontario, 233 COVID-19 patients are being treated in intensive care, of which 187 are currently breathing with the help of a ventilator.

This means that there are approximately 567 fewer ICU patients than the projections provided by the Ontario Ministry of Health.

Ontario and Quebec cases on the rise

Although the number of patients with COVID-19 in the ICU is lower than provincial health officials have best predicted, the number of positive cases in Ontario continues to increase.

Since March 22, the province has been adding hundreds of new cases every day.

Quebec is in a similar position. They also reported hundreds of new cases daily. On April 5, the province alone reported 947 new cases. However, as the number of cases increases, new projections provided by the Quebec government on Tuesday predict that there will be far fewer deaths in this province than in Ontario.


Like Ontario, the projections reveal two possible scenarios, including an optimistic result and a pessimistic result depending on how Quebecers adhere to public health orders. In the optimistic scenario, Quebec predicts that 1,263 residents could die from COVID-19. In the pessimistic scenario, Quebec predicts that 8,860 residents could die, far from the 100,000 predicted by the Ontario government.

And as cases in central Canada increase, it’s a very different story in British Columbia. The numbers on the west coast were astounded, with the highest daily report of 145 cases on March 24. On Tuesday, the number of new cases in the province hit a three-week low with only 25 cases reported.

British Columbia provincial health worker Dr. Bonnie Henry was asked about Monday’s relative success, which she attributed to a mixture of luck and preparation.

Where are we now?

More than 150 people in Ontario have died from COVID-19 and there are 4,726 cases in the province. If the models are correct, there would be another 75,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the next 23 days.

At best, the number of COVID-19 patients in Ontario occupying intensive care beds will peak in 11 days on April 18 with just over 1,200, according to the data.

Last Friday, when the modeling data was released, the President and CEO of Public Health Ontario, Dr. Peter Donnelly, pointed out that the projections are not frozen and will be updated as they receive updates. new news.


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