Dr. Nicole Saphier agrees with the new MIT model: America must “bend a little more”, open with caution

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America must “squat” for a little longer to avoid a potentially “catastrophic” resurgence of coronavirus cases, said Dr. Nicole Saphier on Saturday.

Saphier – a Fox News contributor – agreed with a new model from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology predicting an “exponential explosion” in COVID-19 cases if the country’s foreclosure measures were lifted too soon.

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“We don’t need this model to tell us. We know it. We know that if we open too quickly, too soon, we will be in the same place again in a few months, ”said Saphier. , appearing on “Fox & Friends Weekend”.

The MIT model – made from publicly available data from China, Italy, South Korea and the United States – followed the SEIR model, which groups people into the “Susceptible, Exposed, Infected” categories and Recovered ”.

A new MIT model shows that if the United States were to relax its locking policies too soon, a catastrophic “explosion” of coronavirus cases would ensue.

A new MIT model shows that if the United States were to relax its locking policies too soon, a catastrophic “explosion” of coronavirus cases would ensue.

MIT researchers improved the SEIR model by forming a neural network to determine the effectiveness of quarantine measures and better predict the spread of the virus.

“In the case of [United States], our model captures the current growth of the infected curve and predicts that the spread of the infection will stop by April 20, “wrote researchers Raj Dandekar and George Barbastathis.

“On the other hand, we predict that the easing or phasing out of quarantine policies over the next 17 days could well lead to around one million infections without any stagnation in the number of infected cases by the mid-April 2020, “they added.

The model comes as some state governors relax the lockdown directives and President Trump continues to roll out a three-phase plan to reopen the country’s economy. The “Opening Up America Again” plan relies on governors to decide when their states should reopen.

“To preserve the health of our citizens, we must also preserve the health and the functioning of our economy,” the president said in a press briefing on Thursday.

A key coronavirus model lowered its estimate of the total number of deaths in the United States on Friday, but Saphier, a breast cancer imaging specialist at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, urged caution.

“We have to be careful when looking at the models because … the models are not necessarily predictive of the future,” she said.

“However, we have to be careful and examine them, because this particular model from MIT is an improved SEIR model which is something that we are examining. … MIT specifically examined the virus that causes COVID-19. a little more precise.

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“And what they show is that we can’t just say now that we are in balance or in this plateau phase, and now we can start to open,” added Saphier.

“So we have to be very careful when we start to reopen the economy, but we have to reopen the economy. We have to start doing it. But we really have to look a little bit more to make sure we keep seeing [a] decrease in cases. ”

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