Does Britain underestimate the human and economic toll of the coronavirus?


“I’m not buying that the UK will recover as strongly as the O.B.R. the data suggests, “said Simon Tilford, director of research at the New Economy Forum, an economic research institute. “It assumes that a shock of this magnitude will not cause lasting damage to the economy. “

It would be difficult to make up for the loss in consumption, particularly in the service sector, said Tilford, who described the long-term projections as overly optimistic. The report is based on the premise that “it is possible to put the economy in neutral and bring it back to life,” he added.

Minimizing reports of government tensions over when to reopen the economy, officials dismissed reports that the Treasury was pressuring for the foreclosure to be promptly terminated. Sunak said the key to a return to economic health is to resolve the medical crisis.

The lockdown is expected to continue over the next month.

As a sign of the troubles to come, companies are showing more interest than expected in the government’s program to avoid job losses by paying 80% of the wages of those unable to work due to the closure. In a survey, around 44% of companies said that at least half of their staff would be paid through the program.

“The foreclosure will clearly have a very significant impact on the economy, including increased unemployment, lower government revenues and a higher level of national debt,” said Mel Stride, chairman of the House’s treasury select committee of the communes.


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