COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes may already have surpassed hospital deaths, says senior statistician

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According to a Cambridge University statistician, more people may die from coronavirus in nursing homes than in hospitals.

Sir David Spiegelhalter made the shocking statement yesterday after the National Statistics Office released its weekly data showing that thousands of people are dying outside the hospital and are not counted until weeks later.

The professor, a highly regarded statistical expert and beneficiary of the OBE, said he believed the number of deaths in nursing homes continued to increase as government statistics showed that deaths at the hospital were disappearing.

New figures compiled by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) show that nursing homes and hospitals in England today report around 400 deaths from COVID-19 per day.

While deaths in hospitals are steadily declining – 586 were announced yesterday, compared to 980 at the height of the epidemic – nursing homes may still be at the heart of their crisis. The way the data is backdated means that the real picture is not clear, as we only have statistics from two weeks ago today.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock, however, promised last night that the health department would publish nursing home deaths daily from today, which means the situation could become clear within days.

The real scale of the nursing home crisis has also been masked by the lack of routine testing, which means that thousands of older people may have died without being diagnosed. Professor John Newton, head of government testing, said yesterday that officials assumed that if someone was positive for COVID-19 in a home, then everyone else who had symptoms probably had it too and didn’t need testing.

Professor Carl Heneghan, a medical expert from the University of Oxford who studied government statistics, estimates that at least a third of nursing homes have suffered epidemics.

Families have been devastated for weeks by restrictions preventing them from visiting sick or dying relatives, until the rules were recently relaxed to allow people to say goodbye to loved ones. Peterborough assistant Laura Dunn-Green filmed the “very emotional” moment when she read a farewell letter to an 86-year-old resident after she was sent by her granddaughter, who did not could not visit him because of the coronavirus confinement.

Analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics shows that, as the number of reported hospital deaths has decreased (blue bar), the number of deaths recorded outside of hospitals - mainly in nursing homes - increased (red bar)

Analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics shows that, as the number of reported hospital deaths has decreased (blue bar), the number of deaths recorded outside of hospitals – mainly in nursing homes – increased (red bar)

The number of people who die from coronavirus in England and Wales is around 55% higher when non-hospital deaths are included, according to the Office for National Statistics

The number of people who die from coronavirus in England and Wales is about 55% higher when non-hospital deaths are factored in, according to the Office for National Statistics

Hospitals in England today report around 400 deaths from COVID-19 per day, the same number as in nursing homes. But Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, warned that due to the lag, deaths in nursing homes may already have surpassed those in hospitals.

Hospitals in England today report around 400 deaths from COVID-19 per day, the same number as in nursing homes. But Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, warned that due to the lag, deaths in nursing homes may already have exceeded those in hospitals.

The CQC said that a total of 4,343 people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 died in nursing homes between April 10 and April 24 alone.

ONS statistics released yesterday show that more than a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths occur outside hospitals – as of April 17, there were 4,316 non-hospital deaths out of a total of 19,112.

The official death toll rose to 21,678 in Britain on Tuesday after Britain, Scotland and Wales announced 586 more coronavirus deaths in hospitals yesterday.

But an ONS report found that the actual magnitude of the epidemic could be as much as 55% higher, as Ministry of Health statistics do not include those who died outside of hospitals.

THE NUMBER OF DEATHS AT THE WEEKLY WEEKLY TREATMENT IN A MONTH IN THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS

The number of people dying every week in nursing homes has tripled in a month, according to a shock report.

ONS data show that 7,316 deaths were recorded in households across England and Wales during the week ending April 17 – 2050 of which involved COVID-19.

In comparison, only 2,471 deaths were recorded in nursing homes in the week ending March 13 – before the crisis in Britain began.

But the rate increased in tandem with the coronavirus epidemic, rising to 3,769 in week 14 (March 27-April 3) and 4,927 in week 15 (April 3-10).

This means that the official number of deaths in COVID-19 nursing homes – recorded until April 17 – in England and Wales is 3,096.

But the real figure is probably much higher because it doesn’t account for a recording lag.

For example, separate figures show that the number of nursing home deaths in England up to April 17 but recorded by April 25 was 3,936.

Meanwhile, the British health care regulator – CQC – reports that the number of deaths from COVID-19 in homes is at least 4,300. This includes both suspected and confirmed cases.

County Durham has the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 in nursing homes to date, with 84 followed by Sheffield (79), Birmingham (71) and Liverpool (67)

Woman greets mother from Stanley Park nursing home parking in County Durham - families prevented from visiting elderly parents unless dying to stop spread of coronavirus

Woman greets mother from Stanley Park nursing home parking lot in County Durham – families prevented from visiting elderly parents unless they die, to stop spread of coronavirus

The statistics agency found that as of April 17, England and Wales had registered 22,351 deaths from coronavirus – a significant increase out of the 14,451 identified by health managers. If the same increase – 54.6% – were applied to the total number of deaths in the UK confirmed today (21,678), this could mean that the actual number of victims is around 33,500.

Data from the ONS, which is published weekly and provides the only true picture of the number of people who died outside of hospitals, recorded 3,096 deaths in COVID-19 nursing homes as of April 17. It was almost triple the total of 1,043 announced the previous week, with 2,000 new deaths in a week.

Many of those who die outside of hospitals are not tested for coronavirus in their lifetime, which means that these data show that the epidemic in Britain is much larger than it seems. Some are never officially diagnosed and are believed to have contracted the disease.

So many people are killed by the virus that the week of 11 to 17 April has been the deadliest for England and Wales since the start of records in 1993 and has made a death toll (22351) more double the annual average (10,497). Four out of 10 people who died this week were infected with a coronavirus.

Hancock also announced that routine tests will now be available to everyone in nursing homes, residents and staff, whether or not they have symptoms. The same will be applied to hospital staff and patients, and members of the public who have symptoms and are 65 years of age or older will also be eligible for a test.

Mr. Hancock said during the public briefing this afternoon: “Starting tomorrow, we will publish not only the number of deaths in the hospital every day, but also the number of deaths in nursing homes and the community “

“This will complement the weekly publication of the ONS and CQC and contribute to our understanding of how this virus is spread day by day, and it will help inform the judgments we make as we work to ensure the safety of people, “he said.

Experts say they cannot yet be sure that epidemics of coronaviruses in nursing homes have reached their peak.

The new data is being collected by Public Health England from the ONS and CQC and will go back to the beginning of March – there should be an increase in the number of deaths in Britain tomorrow. Only cases confirmed by tests will be included.

NHS England confirmed today that 552 other patients died from COVID-19 in its hospitals between March 19 and April 27.

The patients were between 29 and 100 and 213 of the deaths occurred on Sunday, April 26. The 29-year-old had no other known health problems.

London is responsible for 87 of the deaths announced today (14%), while 55 occurred in the Midlands, 55 in the north-east and Yorkshire and 41 in the north-west.

It has now become clear that the daily hospital deaths announced only show a fraction of the real epidemic in Britain.

The World Health Organization has warned that half of the deaths from COVID-19 in Europe happen in nursing homes and that the number of victims in the UK is increasing rapidly.

UK officials have come under severe criticism for not providing enough support to the sector, and chief scientist Sir Patrick Vallance admitted yesterday that experts warned ministers “very early” of the risk COVID-19 posed to nursing homes.

Data from the Office for National Statistics, published once a week and dated 10 days, provides the most accurate picture because they add up figures from all sources – including nursing homes and private homes – and publish full records. Those published by the Department of Health and the NHS are continuous updates.

The ONS also counts all the people whose COVID-19 is mentioned on their death certificate, whether it is confirmed by a test or not.

This means that it records using a wider network than the NHS – it can include wrong diagnoses but also those that would never have been tested normally.

The downside to the data, however, is that it is backdated and takes a long time to save, which means it is 10 days out of date at the time of publication.

It also does not include Scotland or Northern Ireland, which have their own registers.

In an effort to speed up registration, the sector regulator, the Care Quality Commission, was also responsible for collecting reports on confirmed and suspected deaths caused by COVID-19.

THE DEADEST BRITTENS OF THE WEEK SAW 22,000 DEAD PEOPLE – 8,700 OF COVID-19

More than 22,000 people died in England and Wales in the week ended April 17, 2020 – the deadliest seven-day period since recordings began.

Statistics from the ONS indicate that 22,351 deaths were recorded between April 11 and 17, more than double the five-year average (10,497).

COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate of 8,758 victims (39.2%). This represents an increase from 33.6% in the week ending April 10.

Not all deaths will be a direct result of COVID-19. For example, dozens of victims tested positive will have died from other causes.

Statisticians said there were 3,835 more deaths recorded in the seven-day period than the week before, when 18,516 deaths were reported.

A single week in modern times has seen more than 20,000 deaths in England and Wales – January 1-7, 2000 (20,566).

The huge spike came during the worst flu epidemic that has hit Britain in decades, which has seen hospitals use trucks in makeshift morgues.

In addition to people who die from the virus and become ill, it is also believed that they become indirect victims of COVID-19.

Emergency room visits for all conditions, including heart attacks, have dropped since the start of the epidemic because people are afraid of getting the virus in hospital or overloading the NHS.

And others have experienced treatment delays or cancellations – all non-emergency procedures have been canceled and some cancer therapies have been delayed – which could put their health at risk.

THE 10 BEST WEEKS OF ENGLAND AND WALES, SINCE THE FILES BEGIN

04/17/2020

01/07/2000

1/8/1999

01/10/1997

04/10/2020

01/14/2000

01/03/1997

01/17/1997

04/03/2020

09/01/2015

22,351

20,566

20,116

18,541

18,516

17,776

17,646

16,652

16,387

16 195

CQC data was released today for the first time and shows that 4,343 people died of the disease in nursing homes between April 10 and 24.

Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter, statistician at the University of Cambridge, said he believed more deaths from coronavirus are currently occurring in nursing homes and homes than in hospitals.

He said on BBC Radio 4’s World At One: “I think we can be very confident that our deaths in English hospitals peaked around April 8 – we have had around 850 deaths and now have fallen about 400 deaths a day in English hospitals – a steady but slow decline.

“However, we have just received new data that the Quality of Care Commission has reported on nursing home notifications of deaths due to Covid.

“They get them really up to date, only a few days late, but that goes until April 24 – barely a few days ago – when they received 400 notifications per day of death in Covid nursing homes .

“When we add the deaths to Covid’s house, it makes me – with a slight tug on the neck – to believe that recently there have been more deaths in Covid outside of the hospital than in the hospital.

So many people are killed by the virus in England that more people died in the week of April 11 to 17 than in any other week since the start of recordings in 1993.

A total of 22,351 deaths were recorded in just seven days – one person every 27 seconds – and 8,758 of them had COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate.

The total was more than double the average for this week of the year – 10,497 – and deaths from coronavirus almost reached average by themselves.

Not all deaths in the ONS figures will be a direct result of COVID-19. Many of those who tested positive or whose virus was mentioned on their death certificates will have died from other causes.

The number of people who die every week in nursing homes has tripled in a month amid the coronavirus crisis, according to a shock report.

ONS data show that 7,316 deaths were recorded in households across England and Wales during the week ending April 17 – 2050 of which involved COVID-19.

In comparison, only 2,471 deaths were recorded in nursing homes in the week ending March 13 – before the crisis in Britain began.

But the rate increased in tandem with the coronavirus epidemic, rising to 3,769 in week 14 (March 27-April 3) and 4,927 in week 15 (April 3-10).

This means that the official number of deaths in COVID-19 nursing homes – recorded until April 17 – in England and Wales is 3,096.

But the real figure is probably much higher because it doesn’t account for a recording lag.

For example, separate figures show that the number of nursing home deaths in England up to April 17 but recorded by April 25 was 3,936.

Meanwhile, the British health care regulator – CQC – reports that the number of deaths from COVID-19 in homes is at least 4,300. This includes both suspected and confirmed cases.

County Durham has the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 in nursing homes to date with 84, followed by Sheffield (79), Birmingham (71) and Liverpool (67).

This comes after Britain’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, revealed yesterday that he and other top scientists had warned politicians early on of the risk posed by COVID-19 for nursing homes .

Sir Patrick, who chairs the group with Professor Chris Whitty, said they “signaled” the risk of nursing home and hospital outbreaks at the start of the epidemic.

While hospital warnings sparked a “protect the NHS” mantra and a rush to buy ventilators and free beds, nursing homes saw no such effort.

The government has been condemned for its lack of support for nursing homes, with no routine tests available, no up-to-date records of the number of people infected or dead, and “paltry” attempts to provide adequate protective clothing for staff.

Nursing home staff and residents say they feel “forgotten” and bosses have accused those responsible of a “chaotic” attempt to help nursing homes fight the disease, which is fatal for elderly people in particular.

Explaining how SAGE works in a briefing yesterday, Sir Patrick Vallance said: “Very early on, we looked at a number of topics, we looked at nosocomial infection very early on, it’s spread in hospitals, and we I’ve flagged it as something the NHS needs to think about.

“We reported that we thought nursing homes would be an important area to look at, and we reported things like vaccine development and so on. So we are trying to have a longer term view as well as dealing with the urgent and immediate areas. “

The SAGE committee, which calls on leading researchers from the United Kingdom and rifles through scientific evidence on COVID-19, was activated on January 3 when Sir Patrick worried about the coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan.

He met for the first time on January 22, suggesting that “very early” in his discussions was probably in late January or early February.

HOW DO COVID-19 DEATHS REPAIR ON AGE GROUPS?

The National Statistics Office provides information on the age of all patients who died with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 between the start of the epidemic and April 17, when the total number of victims was 22,351.

Here’s how it breaks down by age:

  • 1-4 years: 1 (0.004%)
  • 5-9 years: 0 (0%)
  • 10-14: 1 (0.004%)
  • 15-19: 7 (0.03%)
  • 20-24: 12 (0.05%)
  • 25-29: 26 (0.1%)
  • 30-34: 41 (0.2%)
  • 35-39: 69 (0.3%)
  • 40-44: 120 (0.5%)
  • 45-49: 242 (1%)
  • 50-54: 444 (2%)
  • 55-59 years: 739 (3.3%)
  • 60 to 64: 1,111 (5%)
  • 65-69: 1,454 (6.5%)
  • 70-74: 2,340 (10%)
  • 75-79: 3,232 (14%)
  • 80-84: 4,272 (19%)
  • 85-89: 4,242 (19%)
  • 90+: 3,998 (18%)

Note: the percentages total 99% because some have been rounded

The first death in a nursing home in England and Wales was not officially registered until March 31.

Nursing homes, which house some 400,000 people across the UK, are particularly at risk from coronavirus because the elderly are most likely to die if they catch it.

The Alzheimer Society said that 70 percent of all people living in nursing homes suffer from dementia, which makes them particularly vulnerable.

Sally Copley, charity policy directory, said: “Although we are not the least bit surprised, we are still devastated to hear almost a quarter of confirmed coronavirus deaths in England are now confirmed to be from nursing homes and continue to increase weekly. , revealing the growing real scale of the crisis that is taking place in our country’s nursing homes.

“With 70% of people living in nursing homes suffering from dementia, this pandemic is wreaking havoc on the families we work with. The government must ensure that every death is investigated and counted.

“We know this is a terrifying time for those who have loved ones with dementia in care homes.

“People are dying alone because it is clear that nursing homes simply do not receive the test and protective equipment that has been promised to them by the government. “

Current statistics from the ONS show that people in their 40s account for 38% of all coronavirus-related deaths.

Of the 22,351 people who died on April 17, 8,514 were between the ages of 80 and 89. 3,998 (18%) were 90 or older and 3,232 (14.5%) were 79 to 75 years of age.

Deaths decline on a sliding scale in the youngest age groups, with only 38 people in their twenties (0.17%) succumbing to the disease, as well as nine children and adolescents (0.04%).

Office for National Statistics data show that people in their 40s and over are the most killed in COVID-19 of all age groups

Office for National Statistics data shows that people in their 40s and over are the most killed in COVID-19 of all age groups



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