COVID-19 death toll will be “much lower” than expected, officials say

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The director of one of the largest public health agencies in the United States said that the death toll would be “much lower” than COVID-19 than the modeling had predicted, an assertion supported by another senior official of health.

“If we just move away from society, we will see this virus and this epidemic decline, decline, decline. And I think that’s what you see, “said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Monday.

“I think you will see that the numbers will actually be much lower than what the models would have predicted. “

The models are only worth their assumptions, said Redfield, adding that officials still don’t know everything about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus, commonly known as the Coronavirus novel.

“A model should never be used to assume that we have a number,” said the director.

He was talking to AM 1030 KVOI Radio, a station in Arizona.

Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams asked Tuesday whether the death toll would fall below 100,000 to 240,000 expected deaths, said “absolutely”.

“I feel much more optimistic, again, because I see mitigation work,” said Adams during an appearance on “Good Morning America.” “I want the American people to know: there is a light at the end of this tunnel, and we are confident if we continue to do the right thing for the rest of this month that we can start to reopen slowly in some places.” “

Social distancing measures have been put in place across the country. The overwhelming majority of Americans are subject to residence orders. Authorities have threatened those arrested during their non-essential displacement with imprisonment and fines.

Epoch Times Photo
People try to keep a social distance while enjoying a sunny day in Central Park, as the CCP epidemic continues, in New York City’s Manhattan neighborhood on April 6, 2020. (Eduardo Munoz / Reuters )
Epoch Times Photo
A man wears a gas mask while cycling amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Los Angeles, California, April 6, 2020. (Mario Tama / Getty Images)

Updated model

A major model on which the White House is based was updated on Monday to reflect additional data from the health systems of several states, including New York, the most affected state in the nation. Modelers now predict about 12,000 fewer deaths.

The expected peaks in hospitalizations, critical care admissions, ventilator use and deaths were all down in the model, generated by the University of Washington Institute of Metrology and Health Assessment.

When asked if he would lift the federal notice asking people to stay at home except on essential trips, President Donald Trump told reporters Monday evening that he wanted to try.

“We certainly want to try. We certainly want to see what’s going on. We are doing very well, “he said, adding that the curve, or increase in cases that eventually peaks before falling, has become” very flat “in many areas.

Trump extended the guidelines from late March to April 30 on the advice of health experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases.

Fauci said at the same briefing in Washington that America cannot return to normal by acting as if the CCP virus never arrived.

“I don’t think it will happen until we have a situation where you can fully protect the people. But when we say back to normal, we mean something very different from what we are going through right now. Because we are currently in a very intense mitigation. When we return to normal, we will gradually return to the point where we can function as a society, ”he said.

Fauci said that until there is a vaccine, some mitigation efforts will have to continue. Vaccines are not expected to be ready until 2021.
Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber



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