Coronavirus patients now infect only 0.62 people – down from 2.6 before locking – The Sun


THE UK lockout is working to slow the spread of coronaviruses, research suggests.

Draconian distancing measures have made British people less likely to get the flu than seasonal flu.

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    Social distancing and blocking work, reducing the number of people between whom the virus spreads
Social distancing and blocking work, reducing the number of people between whom the virus spreadsCredit: AFP or licensors

Experts estimate that infected people pass the coronavirus to 2.6 other people when no restrictions are in place.

But a survey by scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine shows that our daily contact with others has dropped 73% in recent weeks.

This means that people infected with the virus are likely to transmit the bug to as little as 0.62 people, resulting in the epidemic slowly ending.

In contrast, a typical person with seasonal flu infects about 1.3 people during the colder months.

The results are based on monitoring the movements of 1,356 volunteers after the establishment of the Covid-19 isolation.

Lead researcher Professor John Edmunds said: “If we see similar changes in the British population, we expect the epidemic to start to decline. “

“However, our estimates should not be interpreted as ‘work done’. Rather, they should be used as a motivation for us to follow all the instructions of the British government.

“It is imperative not to take your foot off the pedal. “

It comes the day after the best NHS doctor suggested there could be “green shoots” of hope in controlling the virus.

Professor Stephen Powis said there was “a bit of a plateau” in the number of people who tested positive for Covid-19.

The medical director of NHS England said: “The number of infections is not increasing as rapidly as before.

“So green shoots, but only green shoots and we must not be complacent and we must not take our foot off the pedal.
“We must continue to stop the transmission of the virus to reduce the burden of the NHS now and in the coming months. “

Professor Keith Neal, Professor Emeritus of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases at the University of Nottingham, said: “This study shows the reduction in social mix that has occurred for most people since the introduction of restrictions .


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“Given the flattening in the new cases and we have had measures in place for more than two weeks and a type of lockout for more than a week, their conclusion that R0 [reproduction rate] may be less than 1 is credible.

“Once R0 is less than 1, the epidemic cannot continue because each case produces fewer than one new case and the epidemic eventually stops. “

The British foreclosure began on Monday March 23 and saw the closure of various stores, offices and institutions after the announcement of Boris Johnson.

The Prime Minister got tough with the UK and told us that we have to stay at home to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

He initially announced that these measures were in place for three weeks and that they would be reviewed thereafter.

However, as the country began to adapt within the first week, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Jenny Harries, told the country that we would likely be confined to our home for “the next six months”.


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