The US economy appears to have changed in a matter of weeks, as the coronavirus halted activities across the country. Not only has the United States not anticipated the public health crisis caused by the coronavirus, but it does not appear to be prepared for the economic consequences of controlling the pandemic.
Most Americans already know that they are in a very different economic reality than they were in February. The restaurants are closed or only offer take-out or deliveries. The clothing stores are casing. The economy as a whole has lost their jobs. Even workers whose jobs may be more stable are unlikely to want to watch their 401 (k).
Government officials have made the conscious decision to lock out parts of the economy and implement strict social distancing guidelines to try to better respond to the pandemic. President Donald Trump first said he would like to reopen the economy by Easter to avoid further damage – perhaps thinking it better to just keep the economy going and let the chips fall where they can – but people are not going to fall on their own to go to a restaurant in the event of the spread of a deadly virus. Trump finally backed down and extended social distancing measures until the end of April. After all, the purpose of the economy is to serve people, not to serve people.
“It seems that a segment of society has lost sight of the markets,” said Aaron Klein, director of policy at the Center on Regulation and Markets at the Brookings Institution. “Humanity has created markets to efficiently distribute goods and services in the service of humanity; the markets have not created humanity to effectively serve the will of the markets. “
We are plunged into a double crisis for the foreseeable future – one that is linked to health and one that is economic. Eventually it will end, but we don’t know when. It’s a confusing time, including when it comes to the end of things related to money. So here are some answers to questions about the economic crisis that you may have been too embarrassed – or too scared – to ask.
1) What is an economic crisis?
An economic crisis is a sudden and sudden downturn in the economy. In terms of data, it shows up in many places – GDP growth, unemployment rate, productivity, etc. Data often lags behind real-time events, but what we already know paints a disastrous picture: a huge spike in jobless claims and a projection of worrisome economic contraction.
The United States is definitely in an economic crisis right now, although separate from past crises, including the most recent one: the financial crisis and the great recession of the late 2000s. “The previous recession has started on the financial markets and affected the real economy; it will start in the real economy and affect the financial markets, “said Klein.
Right now the problem is not that subprime mortgages and banks and hedge funds are making bets they shouldn’t be – it’s that the United States, in the midst of a crisis health, take extreme economic measures to protect the well-being of the public. Officials shut down large swathes of the economy, including restaurants, travel and hospitality, and this had a serious and immediate effect. Unemployed claims reached 6.6 million in the last week of March, double the 3.3 million claims unprecedented in the previous week. During the Great Recession, the highest week of losses was around 600,000, and a total of 8.7 million jobs were lost in several months. Factories across the country have closed, businesses are closed, and not only do people have less money to spend, but they have less money to spend it.
“Everything is going faster and faster this time,” Jason Furman, economic adviser to President Barack Obama, recently told Vox’s Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen in an article outlining the differences between the 2008 crash and now.
The question now is whether and when the United States is able to control the virus so that the economy can begin to recover. “What we need is for everyone to stay home and not go bankrupt,” said Cecilia Rouse, an economist at Princeton and a former member of the Obama Council of Economic Advisers. “The sooner we can control this pandemic, the faster we can go back.”
The longer the crisis continues, the more difficult the recovery becomes and the longer it will last.
2) What is the difference between a recession and a depression?
There is a line well known among economists that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, but a depression is when you lose yours, which can perhaps be the difference between the two: a recession feels bad , depression feels very bad. But the line between recession and depression can be a bit blurred.
Traditionally, a recession has been defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has a broader definition of “significant decline in economic activity across the board” economy ”which lasts more than a few months. and appears in places like GDP, income, employment, production and retail sales. In the United States, a group in the NBER is officially accused of “calling” when a recession begins and ends – and it usually takes them a while after the start of a recession for them to say that it is happening. product.
Depression, on the other hand, is a more severe and prolonged version of a recession. The Great Depression, which lasted from 1929 to the early 1940s, experienced not one but two major economic downturns – one from 1929 to 1933 and the other from 1937 to 1938. Production fell sharply.
The coronavirus recession could indeed become a depression. The United States is in uncharted territory in what is happening in the economy – the Americans have stopped working, stopped producing, and stopped consuming almost in no time. The stock market is volatile and corporate investment is slowing. Much of the country is paralyzed.
Whether or not the United States slips into a depression depends largely on the ability of the Americans to weather the storm while the coronavirus part of the crisis is determined. Officials do not want the economy to be so broken that it cannot be repaired.
“Ultimately, the economy will rebound when the pandemic is under control. The question is, how many companies can weather the storm and how many workers can do it? Said Klein. “The longer the closure, the greater the impact on the economy, especially if businesses cannot reopen. “
It’s also important to note that no matter what you call it, not everyone will experience economic benefits in the same way. For some people, it will be catastrophic. For others, it will be a disadvantage. Seniors, low-income homeless people and those in other vulnerable communities are likely to experience the economic crisis more adversely, however formally the recession is defined.
3) What does the stock market have to do with all of this?
The stock market has been everywhere in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. The main indices plunged when the severity of the situation started to take hold in February and March, and stocks became quite volatile. But does it matter what the stock market does? Well, yes and no.
The stock market right now means underlying turmoil in the economy. It can also be a leading, albeit noisy, indicator of the direction of the economy, and in the midst of coronaviruses, its catch seems to be ¯ _ (ツ) _ / ¯. As stocks plunged as the crisis took off in the United States, many investors appear to have withdrawn their money and stored it in cash, and the uncertainty created enormous volatility.
The stock market will likely start to recover before the economy does – this is what happened after the financial crisis, when it started in March 2009 and the recession ended three months later. late June – but we don’t know if or when this will happen. . What happens on the stock market can also have a “wealth effect” which is largely behavioral – consumers spend more in a bull market. A small majority of Americans own stocks, but the wealthiest Americans own most stocks.
But the average person shouldn’t focus too much on what’s going on in the markets, especially in the short term. According to legendary investor Benjamin Graham, the market is a short-term voting machine but a long-term weighing machine. The particular price of a stock can go up or down on a given day, but ultimately, it’s the fundamentals of a business that matter.
“What we know about everything that is bought and sold is that the price is dictated by the price and the demand. What helps determine stock prices in the long run, of course, are the profits, these are the fundamentals, but in the short term, panic can create very large prices, “said Kristina Hooper, chief equity strategist world markets at Invesco.
There have also been questions about whether the United States could completely suspend trading, beyond the temporary “breaker” shutdowns that go off when stocks go down too much. Greg Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics, told me that theoretically it could – after all, there are stock market vacations – but that wouldn’t necessarily solve the volatility problem. “The question is, what happens when it reopens?” ” he said. “You close the market, reopen it and it drops 30%, was it worth it?” “
4) If I have investments, like a 401 (k), what should I do?
The best advice right now on what to do on your investments, from financial experts, might also be the hardest to follow: do nothing.
“Most people are horrible about making long-term investment decisions in general, and this is exacerbated when trying to make decisions in emotionally intense circumstances,” said Zach Teutsch, financial advisor at Values Added Financial.
While it may be tempting to watch your 401 (k) portfolio or your stocks right now, it might not paint a pretty picture and prompt you to make decisions that you may regret later. This is part of what happened in 2008, said Hooper, when average Americans paid too much attention to the stock market, withdrew their money, and then ran out when stocks started to come back. “One of the biggest mistakes of the financial crisis was that the average American focused on it, and many of them changed their asset allocations accordingly,” she said.
Remember, before the current crisis, the Americans were experiencing the longest economic expansion in US history and a multi-year bull market.
Admittedly, advice on this subject changes with age – people who have years to retire may wait for recovery, while those who are nearing retirement or may not be able to do so. . Experts I spoke with said that older adults have, hopefully, moved their investments to less risky places – more bonds than stocks, for example – with age. (There is a reason why your 401 (k) investment plan often has a target retirement date.)
For young people, or those with money to spare, bear markets can be a good time to enter. If you can afford it increase your 401 (k) contributions, consider it. Or if you have cash on hand, many stocks can be traded at a discount. “If you needed to buy a new pair of shoes and all the shoes in the world were 40 percent off, you wouldn’t say, oh, no, there’s a terrible shoe crisis, you would say, great , can I get the shoes I need for less? Said Teutsch.
“Young people make a fortune on the stock market crashes, because they add up every two weeks on the bad markets at lower prices; you just can’t see or appreciate it for years, “said David Bahnsen, portfolio manager and financial commentator.
It is important to remember that investing involves inherent risks, there are no guarantees, things could get worse before they get better, and the market is almost impossible to time – Warren Buffett bet once the S&P 500 would outperform a basket of hedge funds for a decade. And he won.
5) How does unemployment insurance work?
The first thing to know about unemployment insurance is that it is a federal-state program that provides cash benefits, but in terms of administration, it goes through the state. In other words, it’s pretty uneven. So, to apply, you have to go through your state unemployment agency, and the guidelines for who is eligible and what benefits are available vary. You can find information about your state’s requirements and processes here.
First, we will review the typical unemployment insurance scenario, then the changes in the pandemic and how the stimulus package strengthens the program.
If you have been laid off or laid off by an employer and you have a “substantial history” of work, you can apply to collect unemployment insurance benefits on a weekly basis.
Once you have started the online or telephone application process, the unemployment insurance office will contact your employer to confirm that your explanation of why the job ended is correct. If the explanations for the separation are in agreement, the request generally advances fairly quickly. Otherwise, there is a dispute and the state judges what has happened. It should be noted that people who leave their job can also apply for unemployment – for example, in cases of sexual harassment – but these workers are more likely to lose in the conflict.
“When there are disputes over what happened, if people are laid off, they get benefits 70% of the time. If there is a conflict and they resign, they get benefits about 25% of the time, “said Wayne Vroman, labor economist at the Urban Institute.
The amount you are eligible to receive is calculated based on what you earn in your job, and the maximum and minimum amounts vary by state. Many states allow you to collect benefits for up to 26 weeks, but again, this varies. Vroman estimates the system average is around $ 385 per week. Over 52 weeks, that would represent about $ 20,000 under the pre-stimulus system – in other words, it is not a replacement for full-time employment, and you cannot use it for a year whole anyway. Generally, there are limits to the amount you can earn while you collect benefits. In other words, no side concerts or freelance.
Unemployment insurance is funded by payroll taxes paid by employers, and when there are many demands, states may run out of money to pay benefits. During the last recession, three dozen states had to borrow from the federal government to cover unemployment insurance.
Because so many people apply for unemployment amidst a coronavirus, this is extremely difficult at the moment, and many state offices are overwhelmed. This can result in delays for these deposits.
The late March stimulus package puts unemployment insurance on steroids. It includes an increase of $ 600 a week in unemployment benefits in addition to state benefits for four months. It also extends unemployment to those who are generally not covered – workers in concert, the self-employed, entrepreneurs, the self-employed and workers on leave or who have reduced hours – and allows for up to 13 weeks of nailing for each State.
“If you lose your job, your hours are reduced, and even if you don’t feel like you’ve lost your job but have been zeroed out, you can still claim unemployment benefits even if your employer tells you you can’t, ”said Andrew Stettner, a senior member of the Century Foundation.
Doxan Matthews of Vox has an explanation for how the stimulus bill changes unemployment insurance.
6) How to pay for health care in the event of dismissal?
In the United States, health coverage is linked to employment. Now, large parts of the economy have been closed in response to a health crisis, resulting in the loss of jobs for millions of Americans in the midst of the health crisis and, as a result, many of them have lost their Health Insurance.
“The joy of choosing – or keeping – your health insurance is really based on the fact that you have a job,” said Mike Konczal, member of the Roosevelt Institute.
Linda Blumberg, a health system specialist at the Urban Institute, told Vox what to do if you are laid off and lose your employer insurance.
The first step for people who can afford it is to explore the possibility of obtaining COBRA coverage, which basically means that you can keep your insurance but pay for it yourself. But COBRA can be expensive and translate into thousands of dollars in premiums. For people whose incomes have dropped significantly, and especially for those living in the expanding states of Medicaid, Medicaid is another place to look. You can see if you are eligible for Medicaid in your state based on your income here. For children, you can also consult CHIP.
People who lose their jobs can also enroll in the affordable care law markets for a certain period of time, since losing your health insurance, as well as having a baby or getting married, is considered a “Qualifying event”. And there you may also be eligible for grants. Blumberg cautioned that people should be careful in finding registration options and that they should assume that their loss of income will persist when entering information into the system. “If, for whatever reason, they return to work or their hours resume, then they can report it at that time and see the subsidy reduced,” she said.
Even if you are not eligible for a grant, it is a particularly critical time to get health insurance, given the coronavirus epidemic.
Blumberg cautioned against non-government, non-market plans and short-term, time-limited plans allowed under the Trump administration. “These other policies often make it very difficult to understand what is excluded from them,” she said. “Pay close attention to something that seems too good to be true. “
For those who are not already insured, it should be noted that some states have reopened their markets in light of the crisis, so you may be able to purchase insurance now. “The debt is better than dead,” said Blumberg.
Doxan Scott of Vox has an explanator on health insurance among coronaviruses and the different mechanisms of coverage. He also notes that the CDC said in a statement to Vox that the agency believes it has the legal authority to cover Covid-19 testing and treatment, in collaboration with other federal and local agencies. In a separate statement, a CDC spokesperson told Vox that there were “provisions which allocate funds for the screening and treatment of the uninsured, which will continue to be announced” and noted that the Federally qualified health centers are an important resource for those who lack insurance.
7) What other mechanisms are there to help me if I can’t pay my bills?
Beyond unemployment and health insurance, there are other ways to help people make ends meet.
For example, there are several food aid options, including SNAP benefits (more commonly known as food stamps) and specific services for pregnant or postpartum women, children and the elderly. In the case of food stamps, they are managed by the states, and you can find a directory here. Food stamps, like other aid programs, are linked to your income.
“You may have, even with unemployment insurance, an income low enough to qualify for SNAP,” said Vroman.
You can also find an overview of government benefits here.
Stettner advised that people should start enrolling in benefit and assistance programs as soon as possible. “Start the process, as it may take a while. Don’t wait until the last minute to ask for help, “he said. He added that it’s also worth contacting utility companies if they’re having trouble seeing if they’ll work with you on a plan to pay your bills. (The same goes for rents or mortgages.)
Unfortunately, much of the safety net in the United States has been reduced over the years. “This is for the most needy people in our society, so we don’t have much room for the people who manage,” said Rouse.
8) How does the recovery plan work and what is the government doing to help the economy?
On March 27, the President signed a $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package, the CARES Act, to help stabilize and stimulate the US economy during the coronavirus era. Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen of Vox have a full explanation of what is in the bill, and here is a brief overview:
- A $ 500 billion business loan program administered by the Treasury Department. Basically a bailout fund for big business.
- Reinforced unemployment insurance that increases benefits by $ 600 per week every four months and increases the number of people who can claim and receive benefits
- Funding for hospitals, medical equipment and health care worker protection totaling $ 150 billion, of which $ 1 billion will go to hospitals, $ 1 billion to the Indiana Health Service and the rest to increase the capacity of medical equipment
- Approximately $ 150 in state and local government assistance, including $ 5 billion in tribal governments
- About $ 377 billion in small business loans
The other element of the stimulus package, which has perhaps received the most attention, is the direct payments to send to Americans across the country – in other words, those government checks you have probably heard speak. (Dylan Matthews of Vox has an explanation on the stimulation controls.)
Single adults earning up to $ 75,000 a year will receive a one-time check for $ 1,200, and married couples earning up to $ 150,000 will receive $ 2,400. The government will also distribute $ 500 per child. Payments decrease as income increases and gradually disappears by $ 99,000 for singles and $ 198,000 for couples. The calculations will be made using the 2019 taxes for those who have deposited (the deadline is now July 15) and the 2018 taxes for those who have not. There are several online calculators that you can use to determine the amount you will receive.
For those who do not tax because they earn so little that they were not required to do so, collecting the money will be more complex. The IRS says people will need to file a “simple tax return” with basic information to collect money, and low-income taxpayers, the elderly, social security recipients, some veterans and people who would not otherwise have to file an income tax return. will not owe tax. Note that people in households whose members are unauthorized immigrants may not be eligible for direct payments.
Beyond the stimulus bill, Congress has passed two other pieces of legislation related to coronaviruses, and the Federal Reserve has taken steps to help stabilize markets and the economy. Democrats are pushing for a fourth coronavirus bill, but so far it is unclear how much Republicans have won.
As for what the government could do, the answer is abundant, if there is political will. Americans face a staggering health and economic crisis, and the biggest risk is doing too little than doing too much. Matt Yglesias of Vox recently presented some possibilities:
The United States must take the analogy of wartime mobilization that has been used by many leaders much more seriously, and provide billions of dollars more in tax cuts and spending increases to stimulate demand. . Much of this spending is expected to mobilize workers and industry to provide the goods and services the United States needs to continue to cope with a virus that, even if successfully controlled, will not not disappear soon.
To cope with the dual economic and public health crisis, the United States will need substantial investment in the production of personal protective equipment for healthcare workers, but may also need the production of masks and gloves for the public. It will require a huge injection of funds for state and local governments so that they can continue to provide – if not expand – the services they need. It will need medical research on the shovel, and we will need income support for households and businesses as they struggle to adapt to a new world of doing things less efficiently and more distantly. socially. And to support everything, the United States needs a creative and flexible Federal Reserve, ready to adopt a war mentality to finance.
“Does anyone regret the debt we contracted to win the Second World War? » a déclaré Betsey Stevenson, économiste à l’Université du Michigan et ancien responsable de l’administration Obama. «Les gens se plaignent rarement des dépenses du Congrès pour mener une guerre, et ils doivent y penser dès maintenant alors que nous combattons cette pandémie.»
9) Quelles sont les industries les plus touchées par cela?
Toutes les personnes – ou tous les secteurs – ne sont pas également touchés par la crise des coronavirus.
« Cette récession va être, pour certains, plus dévastatrice que la crise financière, pour certains moins », a déclaré Klein. « Celui-ci va commencer plus bas sur l’échelle des revenus. “
Les restaurants, bars, magasins et commerces non essentiels ont été contraints de fermer dans une grande partie du pays. Les compagnies aériennes ont connu une énorme baisse d’activité, tout comme l’industrie du voyage et de l’hôtellerie dans tous les domaines. Les écoles ont été fermées et les spectacles ont cessé.
Le projet de loi de relance est censé apporter un certain soulagement aux petites entreprises et aux grandes sociétés, qui ont toutes deux obtenu des fonds de sauvetage dans le cadre du programme de 2,2 billions de dollars. Mais, encore une fois, cela dépend vraiment combien de temps cela dure pour voir à quel point l’économie doit être touchée.
En fin de compte, les entreprises et les industries se traduisent par des personnes, comme les travailleurs, et les travailleurs qui seront les plus durement touchés par les licenciements et les fermetures sont ceux qui ne peuvent pas se le permettre. Selon les estimations de l’indice américain de la qualité de l’emploi dans le secteur privé, plus de 37 millions d’emplois aux États-Unis sont vulnérables aux licenciements à court terme, dont 35 millions sont considérés comme à faible revenu.
Il y aura probablement aussi des disparités selon la race et l’origine ethnique.
« Nous savons que les Noirs, les Latinx et les autochtones, en termes de race et d’ethnicité, ont des niveaux de réserves inférieurs, et nous savons également que leur emploi est plus précaire que celui des Blancs », a déclaré Darrick Hamilton, le directeur exécutif. du Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity à Ohio State University.
10) Comment puis-je dépenser de l’argent pour aider?
Si vous avez de l’argent supplémentaire en main en ce moment et que vous ne vous inquiétez pas de vous en séparer, il y a beaucoup de choses à faire pour essayer d’aider – commandez la livraison dans les restaurants et les épiceries locales, ou achetez des chèques-cadeaux pour les entreprises locales que vous pourrez utiliser ultérieurement. Amazon n’est pas une entreprise inquiet pour son entreprise en ce moment, alors peut-être obtenir du papier toilette du marché dans la rue à la place. Pourboire généreusement au livreur. Au lieu de commander via une application de livraison, essayez plutôt d’appeler le restaurant. Ce sont les travailleurs des services à bas salaires qui seront les plus touchés le plus rapidement.
« Beaucoup de petites entreprises qui ont tendance à travailler avec des marges assez faibles au départ vont être très durement touchées », a déclaré Rouse.
Si vous employez des personnes, comme une gardienne ou un service de nettoyage, vous pouvez toujours continuer à les payer, même si vous leur demandez de ne pas venir.
Il existe de nombreux organismes de bienfaisance prêts à prendre votre argent, y compris GiveDirectly, qui fournit une aide en espèces aux familles. Vous pouvez également contacter les banques alimentaires locales et d’autres organisations de services sociaux pour savoir comment vous pouvez aider. Une autre sombre réalité est qu’il existe de nombreux comptes GoFundMe créés pour fournir une aide économique et médicale.
Mais le fait est qu’il n’y a que beaucoup de choses que les particuliers peuvent faire.
«Fondamentalement, cela doit être une solution gouvernementale. Les actes de charité individuels ou la tentative de maintenir l’économie à flot ne sont pas suffisants pour le moment », a déclaré Konczal. «La récession est en fin de compte un problème collectif, et le gouvernement sera celui qui déterminera ce qui arrivera aux petites entreprises, aux travailleurs indépendants, et ainsi de suite.»
11) Quand les choses iront-elles mieux? Y a-t-il une chance que cela entraîne un changement positif dans l’économie?
À l’heure actuelle, le scénario le plus probable est que l’économie s’améliore lorsque la crise des coronavirus s’améliore, et malheureusement, personne ne sait quand ce sera le cas. Comme l’a dit l’économiste du Dartmouth College, Bruce Sacerdote, «il s’agit de maîtriser ce putain de virus.»
Il y a eu un débat pour savoir si le «remède» – comme dans l’arrêt économique – est pire que la maladie qu’est le coronavirus. Et certaines personnes ont suggéré aux responsables gouvernementaux d’ouvrir l’économie et de commencer à assouplir les restrictions sur l’éloignement social avant même que le plan de santé ne soit sous contrôle. Mais cela vaut-il vraiment la peine de sacrifier des dizaines de milliers de personnes pour que le Dow Jones Industrial Average remonte? Et est-il vraiment probable qu’avec un virus mortel qui se propage, les gens seront impatients d’aller manger au restaurant en bas de la rue?
Le milliardaire Bill Gates a récemment pris la parole: «Il est très difficile de dire aux gens:« Hé, continuez à aller au restaurant, allez acheter de nouvelles maisons, ignorez cette pile de corps dans le coin. Nous voulons que vous continuiez à dépenser, car il y a peut-être un politicien qui pense que la croissance du PIB est tout ce qui compte. »»
Ezra Klein de Vox a également récemment fait une plongée profonde:
Vous pouvez supprimer le virus maintenant et faire face à une économie terrible dans six mois, ou vous pouvez attendre deux mois de plus pour supprimer le virus, vous retrouver contraint à des mesures de quarantaine encore plus extrêmes parce que le virus est omniprésent et que le nombre de morts est écrasant, et vous retrouver dans une économie encore plus horrible de l’autre côté.
Donc, pour l’instant, les Américains sont dans un jeu d’attente avec le virus, et une fois que cela sera sous contrôle, la reprise dépendra des mesures d’atténuation que les États-Unis ont prises et prendront. « Le débat est de savoir si nous nous retrouvons dans une récupération en forme de V ou en forme de U, et quiconque prétend avoir la réponse est faux », a déclaré Bahnsen.
Quant à savoir si cela entraînera des changements positifs dans l’économie, il est difficile de dire. D’une part, des politiques et des actions gouvernementales qui auraient semblé presque inimaginables il y a quelques semaines ou mois à peine – un chèque envoyé à presque tous les ménages américains, élargissant l’assurance-chômage – sont désormais une réalité. Et dans un tel scénario où tant d’Américains perdent leur couverture santé au moment où ils en ont le plus besoin, il faut au moins que certains réfléchissent à la valeur de Medicare-for-all, ou à tout le moins, une option d’assurance maladie publique . La Grande Dépression a entraîné une expansion spectaculaire du filet de sécurité sociale.
“We’re considering this use of public power to address our calamity in ways that the public imagination didn’t consider in the past. The sobering reality is that it’s not enough,” Hamilton said. “You can’t tell people that this stuff is impossible, because it happened.”
This could also foster a discussion about how Americans treat and think about the workers deemed “essential” during times of crisis, which includes not only doctors and nurses but also home health care workers, grocery store clerks, and service staff.
On the other hand, there’s always a tendency to revert to the mean, and recessions and economic crises don’t usually make Americans more generous. “In general, recessions make people very zero-sum and very hesitant to want to collectively provide security. We saw that in the Great Recession,” Konczal said. “We should not understand this as an obviously political moment.”