Charts that show the real death toll from coronavirus in the UK is much higher than expected

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Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, said the tip was “incredibly sharp”.

“I don’t think I was so shocked when I looked at something, especially since just over half of this pic was death certificates that Covid was on,” he said. .

“We knew there was going to be a pump in the deaths recorded by Covid. I didn’t expect such a large number of deaths that did not appear on the death certificate. “

Unexplained deaths likely linked to Covid-19 but have yet to be detected, such as deaths in nursing homes, where many residents die before a doctor can examine them, or deaths due to illness not linked.

Care England data recently suggested that as many as 7,500 people may have died from coronaviruses in nursing homes so far.

A similar scenario takes place in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

As death registration is a faster process in Scotland, more recent data are available. And more excess deaths are starting to be associated with Covid-19.

In week 14, deaths from coronavirus accounted for approximately 46% of all excess deaths. At week 15, it was almost 70%.

Tom Dening, a professor of dementia research at the University of Nottingham, said, “It is worrying that there appears to be a sharp increase in deaths in the community that are not known to be due to Covid-19. So far, we do not have good data on the possible reasons for this, but there are a number of possibilities.

“The first is simply that many of them are actually caused by undiagnosed Covid-19. Testing remains extremely limited outside of hospitals, so we will probably never know how many people have had the virus during this time. “

“There are probably several reasons for other deaths. These include people who do not feel able to get to their doctor’s office, call an ambulance or go to the emergency room as they have been able to do in the past. Therefore, some serious conditions may present too late for effective treatment. »»

“Another possibility is that some people with serious conditions, such as cancer or chronic kidney disease, cannot or do not want to go to the hospital on a regular basis, so their treatment regimens may expire. “

It follows the release of NHS figures which show that, since the start of the epidemic, attendance at A&E has dropped to its lowest level since modern recordings began.

Increase in confirmed cases

As the number of excess deaths accumulates, the number of confirmed deaths directly related to Covid-19 also continues to increase each week.

According to the latest data, deaths in England and Wales, where the coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate, were 50% higher than those recorded in hospitals.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed 6,235 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales between the start of the year and April 3, compared with 4,093 reported by the Department of Health at l ‘time.

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