Canada could see 22,000 coronavirus deaths even with physical distance, officials say | Coronavirus epidemic

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Canada could face up to 22,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, even with strict physical distance and widespread closure of businesses and schools, warned public health officials in Canada.

Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday that he remains confident that Canadians will be able to continue their “disciplined” behavior, including staying at home and social distancing.

“We are fortunate to determine what our country will look like in the weeks and months to come. Our health systems across the country are doing well for the moment, but we are at a crossroads between the best and the worst possible results, “said the Prime Minister. “The best possible outcome is not an easy path for all of us. “

Canada had nearly 20,000 cases of coronavirus and 461 deaths.

Projections for coronaviruses coincided with the release of the country’s employment reports in March, which found that more than one million Canadians had lost jobs, highlighting the high costs at which Canada and d ‘other countries face when trying to reconcile economic resilience and public health.

The government has come under increasing pressure in recent weeks to publish the models and projections used to guide decision-making at the national level.

But experts advising the Prime Minister warned against reading the figures too closely.

“It is important to recognize that the models are not a crystal ball and cannot predict what will happen,” Dr Theresa Tam, the country’s public health official, told reporters on Thursday.

At least seven provinces released their own projections last week. The most populous Ontario has warned that 3,000 to 15,000 deaths are possible with the current trajectory of the virus.

The Prime Minister’s remarks come as 81 deaths have been announced in the past 24 hours – by far the deadliest day to date for the country.

The cases double every three to five days, which Tam says remains a positive sign.

As cases continued to increase in Ontario and Quebec, Tam warned that it was still “too early” to know how close the country was to reaching its peak.

Experts say Canada could experience more than 30,000 cases by next week, with up to 700 deaths.

In their modeling, health officials assume that between 934,000 and 1.9 million people may be infected with Covid-19 – a better scenario. Between 11,000 and 22,000 people could die from the virus.

In the absence of strict controls, experts fear the epidemic will quickly crush even the best-prepared health systems in the country, killing up to 300,000 Canadians – roughly equivalent to the number of deaths every causes confused every year in the country.

The Prime Minister urged Canadians to continue to stay in their homes as much as possible.

On Wednesday, Trudeau ended his self-isolation – which began in mid-March after his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, tested positive for the coronavirus. He attended his first cabinet meeting in person on Wednesday, but said he would continue to work from home.

Trudeau has warned residents in recent days of expecting “many more weeks” of removal orders – a message echoed by the country’s best doctor.

“While some of today’s numbers may seem clear, Canadian modeling shows that the country still has the opportunity to control the epidemic and save lives,” said Tam. “We cannot prevent every death. But we must prevent all the deaths that we can. “

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