Alberta updates COVID-19 modeling and adds unlikely scenario


Alberta released new revised data on projected trends and health effects of the new coronavirus in the province and added a new “low” modeling scenario on Tuesday.

Alberta’s “probable” COVID-19 model predicts 400 to 3100 deaths: Kenney

According to the new low forecast, about 298 Albertans will need to be hospitalized and 95 will require intensive care when the virus reaches its peak.

“If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta,” said the government.

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Updated modeling scenarios continue to suggest that the Alberta outbreak will peak in late May.

Premier Jason Kenney said that hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care units remain “well below” the model’s initial forecast.

“The health care system continues to be able to manage – very competently,” said Kenney.

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“Although we are far from returning to normal life, we are working tirelessly on our recovery strategy,” he said.

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The province continues to monitor several figures while considering the recovery plan: the number of hospitalizations, the number of intensive care admissions, the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and confirmed cases as a percentage of total tests.

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Kenney said more details of the stimulus package would be released “later this week”.

A likely COVID-19 model in Alberta predicts 400 to 3,100 deaths: Kenney

A likely COVID-19 model in Alberta predicts 400 to 3,100 deaths: Kenney

Alberta confirmed 154 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the provincial total to 4,850.

Five other people died from the virus.

“There are now 80 deaths in our province,” said Dr. Deena Hinshaw. “This includes two deaths in continuing care facilities.

“I want to offer my sincere sympathies … COVID-19 can be deadly … no one is safe. “

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On Tuesday, there were 82 Albertans at the hospital, including 21 in intensive care.

Nearly 500 health care workers in Alberta tested positive for COVID-19

She said there were 759 confirmed cases among workers at the Cargill meat plant and 249 cases among employees and contractors at the JBS factory in Brooks, Alberta.

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Alberta reports 216 additional COVID-19 cases, 2 deaths; confirmed epidemic in the First Nation

Alberta COVID-19 Case Model… by Emily Mertz on Scribd

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